To peel or not to peel

Spicymoose · #1 11-19-2005, 02:41 PM

SB here is an agressive 70/16/3 after 100 hands. I think maybe I should peel here, but I am not sure. My K and Q outs may be good, but I also may be wasting money when I hit those and lose anyway. Pot is small, is a fold OK?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 3.50 BB

Stinkybeaver · #2 11-19-2005, 03:01 PM

At first I thought it was definately a peel. but it's pretty close I think.

We have 4 clean outs which we'll hit 1 in 12 on the turn so we need to make a pot of more than 12 SB whenever we hit. sure enough we have a few outs in our K's and Q's however sometimes we'll be behind to an ace and sometimes we'll hit a J only to have him hi a flush on the river. I don't think theres much left in our K's and Q's.

Another option is to Raise for a freecard and go from there. I don't think he folds this very often however he might donk a few turns and also I don't think we can make enough when we hit wether it's the str8 or a pair.

I think fold is the best EV, but this is asuming he's holding some piece of the board and isn't just throwing chips around with random cards which this player is very capable of doing. So a peel makes sense for metagame stuff and to keep him guessing.

flawless_victory · #3 11-19-2005, 03:03 PM

raise it.

Spicymoose · #4 11-19-2005, 03:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we continue, this is definetly viable, and probably better than calling. But, is the pot big enough for us to continue?

flawless_victory · #5 11-19-2005, 03:09 PM

i think youre a favorite outright to have sb beat here, so absolutely.

Spicymoose · #6 11-19-2005, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think youre a favorite outright to have sb beat here, so absolutely.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has an ace, we have 4 outs. If he has a pair, we have 10 outs, but still only win 40% of the time. If he has a flush draw, he has 15 outs, and we are actually behind him. Granted, we have a redraw if he hits his pair outs, but only 20% of the time will we improve. He could be betting with worse, but I think we don't really have that much equity here.

Stinkybeaver · #7 11-19-2005, 03:28 PM

I think he's ahead of us at this flop besides the times when he's doing it with air.

He could have flush draw OESD or Pair all of these are ahead.

I don't think a raise is profitable. He'll have a 9 or T quite a few times here but still we need to improve to win.

Spicymoose · #8 11-19-2005, 03:43 PM

I forgot that although we might not have an equity edge over villain, we at least have equity in the pot. Against his range of possibly 77-55,A8s-A2s,T7s+,96s+,7c6c,A8o-A2o,T8o+,97o+, we have 25% equity, which means we own 1.5 SB of the pot if we see a showdown. If we raise his bet, we are paying 2 SB immediately, plus he may 3-bet with his aces, or two pair, or possibly even his flush draw. If he leads the turn, after we raise preflop, we can probably fold, but if we get the free turn, we usually have to call a river bet and invest 2 more SB. It just seems like we are paying too much for a pot that isn't all that big.