i cant tell if i suck or not

[newhizzle]

i built an $8500 BR over the course of a few months from a 50 dollar buy in, i just moved up at 300 BB and was running fine at 10/20, i hadnt had any major downswings, it seemed like my roll was just steadily rising, i took a shot at some 20/40 and 30/60 while i was following buddies around, and ran badly and lost about half of it in a week. since then i have moved down, to 5/10, 3/6, and now 2/4 i cant make anything happen, i dont know if i was lucky to build my roll to the level it was at or if im just running horribly bad now, or possibly my game has been slipping and ive been on tilt since i lost half my roll, it does seem like im getting worse luck than normal, i cant even seem to have a winning session at the easiest game in the world, PP 2/4, im down to like a g now and am worried that i might loose it and have to start at 50 again, has anyone experienced a downswing like this that can give some good advise on how to deal with it?

[GoCubsGo]

That is a really big downswing. Since you built your roll over a few months, I'm assuming you didn't get lucky and double it up 5 times in a matter of 1,000 hands; therefore, you can be pretty sure you're a winning player. No doubt you've had a bad run of cards lately, but with a downswing this large, tilt is surely contributing. Post some hands you had trouble with, see what you're doing wrong. Sometimes when you get stuck you call with more marginal holdings trying to work it back up, which only hurts you more. Take a short break, analyze hands, re-establish your focus, get back to the basics, and go kick some donkey ass.

[squallA964]

I'd step away from poker for a week or two. This helped me alot in a similar situation. Try to analyze what you were doing to win and what you're doing now. Personally, I started thinking I was a little better than I actually was, and started lowering my starting hand requirements and playing certain hands out of position. For example, when I had started building my bankroll up, I played hands like 98s only in late position, so that I knew that I'd be last to act after the flop, and only when I knew I'd get great action if I hit the flop. When I was going downhill, I got too full of myself and started playing those hands out of position, because I thought I could read people post-flop well enough to not get burned. Of course, I started getting burned often. It was only when I stepped away that I realized what the hell I was doing.

When you have a bad run, it never hurts to go back to the basics. Play tight with good starting hands to regain confidence, even if you become a little predictable. Then open up your game from there.

How many total hands do you have at each level?

-Jonny C

http://jonspkerblog.blogspot.com/

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
How many total hands do you have at each level?

-Jonny C

http://jonspkerblog.blogspot.com/

[/ QUOTE ]

about a thousand at .5/1, 3000 at 1/2, 9000 at 2/4, 6000 at 3/6, 12000 at 5/10, and 8000 at 10/20, looking at my winrates makes me feel sick, i know they were all positive before the downswing, except 30/60 i have a winrate of 21.55 BB/100 in 30/60(350 hands), 20/40 and 15/30 are where i lost everything, im doing alright tonight tho

edit: i also have about 30,000 hands on another account but that is not what i built my BR with

[newhizzle]

after 44,599 hands im losing 0.01BB/100 hands, as of aug 1, i was winning 2.41 BB/100 hands after 10,000 hands, as of aug 15 i was winning 1.61 after 20,000 hands, and as of sept 1 i was winning 0.66 after 39,000 hands, is there a better forum to post these numbers in?

[The Truth]

How long have you been playing poker? I would wager you are a winning player, but just not at as high of a limit as one would have hoped during the upswing.

[krubban]

You're going waaay to fast upwards. 12k hands on 5/10 is nowhere near enough to prove that your a winner there.

I just started playing 5/10 about a month ago and i'm still
-150BBs after 20k+ hands. Although I'm very certain i am a winner at this level the swings are rather large since you don't get the comfort of raking in those huge multiway pots you're used to see at 2/4. Most of the play is 3-handed or HU which increases your variance.

My advice is that you step down to 3/6 and log at least 20k hands there before venturing up again. Or if you feel ready for 5/10 then play there but I would play at least 40k hands there to get used the swings and prove that you can win long term.

[dibbs]

This is a pretty common situation, someone taking a small stake and jumping up levels running good and building a healthy bankroll real quick. It comes down quick too most of the time, some run good though figure things out and gash their little niche in the game. I may be wrong though, as you didn't mention any numbers as how many hands you played or whatever at each level, pretty vague.

That being said, realizing that you have to move down is a trait some dont have so youre on your way perhaps. I say step back, go nuts with PT and HH's reanalyze all your sht and see if your making +EV moves or not. Prolonged streaks of "bad luck" are very real as well. Do what you have to do to avoid, whether it be taking a break or whatever. Good luck bro.

[Nigel]

Stop 8-tabling.