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#11
10-30-2005, 12:02 AM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you're ever going to bluff raise the river in limit hold'em, this is the river and player to do it with, isn't it? A horrible river card and a thinking player who can make a laydown? Just something to consider. [/ QUOTE ] What's he calling with on two streets? [/ QUOTE ] I could see him having a hand like A7o. [/ QUOTE ] ... 
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#12
10-30-2005, 12:53 AM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you're ever going to bluff raise the river in limit hold'em, this is the river and player to do it with, isn't it? A horrible river card and a thinking player who can make a laydown? Just something to consider. [/ QUOTE ] What's he calling with on two streets? [/ QUOTE ] Who knows? 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He open limped on the button.
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#15
10-30-2005, 01:44 AM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
I think you can fold and sleep well. You've been nothing but aggressive this hand which implies that from your opponent's perspective, you have a strong enough hand to have a reasonable probability of calling a river raise. It doesn't sound like you've both been at the same table long enough for him to have enough of a read on you to attempt such a fancy move.
Later on, you might want to mix it up by calling this type of hand down every now and then so someone doesn't actually try a bluff of this sort against you.
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#16
10-30-2005, 07:01 AM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
It looks like a near certainty that you are up against trip sevens. I could fold without a second though.
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#17
10-30-2005, 07:18 AM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
I called quite a few of these raises at 2/4, and the way I remember it, I eventually stopped being particularly surprised when I was shown A3o or pocket 2's.
But that was 2/4. And I haven't seen raises on scare cards as regularly as I used to. Possibly it's a Party trend that's fading, or maybe 3/6 and 5/10 players are less inclined to bluff-raise the river on scare cards (or to hang around with a marginal holding in the first place to have the bluff-raise available to them). In any case, I suspect folding is best here, though I'll admit that I would still pay off sometimes, out of old habit.
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#19
10-31-2005, 09:50 PM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
This is a serious and interesting situation for me. For many thousands of hands I've been folding in this spot and, of course, sleeping well. But I fold a lot. Other smart posters have told me I need to call more often, and my won $ @ SD stat is a bit too high, indicating that it's true: I should stop folding so much. Maybe I'm folding too many winners.
So I'm trying to cure that, and then I encountered this hand. I forced myself to call against my better judgment, and I won the hand. He had J-high for a total bluff. Unfortunately, this did not help my predicament. (Well, it helped establish a great read on the guy, who ended up being an awful donk and was MP in that controversial AK river raise hand I posted). Two possibilities still exist: 1) It was still a bad call, and I got lucky to run into the 1 in 20 times this river raise is a bluff; it could still be an EV loss. 2) Of all the times I've folded here, how many winners like this have I really folded? Maybe the great sleep I have been getting has been at the expense of many medium-sized pots. In other words, maybe Evan is right, etc. I'm just as confused as ever now. Maybe I can rationalize by telling me this guy is bluffing just about 1/8 times, so calling vs. folding is close to neutral EV, making my decision not as important as I think it is. Maybe.
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#20
10-31-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: Weak top pair, ugly river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you're ever going to bluff raise the river in limit hold'em, this is the river and player to do it with, isn't it? A horrible river card and a thinking player who can make a laydown? Just something to consider. [/ QUOTE ] What's he calling with on two streets? [/ QUOTE ] I could see him having a hand like A7o. [/ QUOTE ] That was my point. He's far more likely to have called with a hand that just rivered us than he is to have a total bluff.
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