AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws

Do people really see situations in which hero's turn fold is a bad play? Granted, we don't have good numbers, but we've got a guy who suffered through a 3 bet flop, and he's going to lead the turn certainly knowing that somebody's calling him down based on previous action.

How often does this guy NOT have a flush?

(Granted, he could have 2 pair or a set, but I don't think I'd want to bet on it...

Hey,

Good post.
The question I have on this play is not the 3 bet issue...though I would. Rather, it is the fold issue. Can we honestly say that we are MORE THAN ~89% SURE that we are beaten on the turn or MORE THAN ~91% SURE that we are beaten on the river? Yes, there is no question that UTG+1 waking up is worrisome, but to that level? I also agree that CO is just most likely not a factor.

At this level of play, there are just too many people who play the turn and river incorrectly that I have to believe we are going to win this hand more than 1 in ~10 times. I think we have to at least check / call it down here.

Hight blood sugar gets you in 20 years, low blood sugar gets you today.
Fammy

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Hight blood sugar gets you in 20 years, low blood sugar gets you today.
Fammy

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you really are intending to type this out after every post arent you....


anyway, to the point: vil having a set is no better than vil having a flush draw, either way we are outless. (altho i think vil comes to life with a set on the flop)

regardless, against 2P we have hidden outs. against Qx, Asx, Ksx, 9T, JsJ and TsT we are well ahead. there is no way we can be that sure to fold the turn.

[friends]

I think 3 bets on flop are obligatory.
First of all you may force to fold different gutghot draws, middle pairs and backdoor flush draws, you also may force to fold hands which include K.
At second, when you just call CO raise, UTG+1 and MP1 have 1:15.5 to call, so they are right to call with any imaginable hand including 54 and 22s, when they are right, that means you are wrong. You should RAISE getting them 1:8 in which case they are not getting sufficient odds for hands such as Q2, 89, KT, etc.

[RustyCJ]

Going to post the results here, I know they don't matter in regards to how I played the hand.

CO had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG+1 had 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

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I feel good that I'm ahead of CO here. There are a TON of cards I don't want to see on the turn, any [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K,J,T,9,8,7,6,5 are all potentially bad.



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This is exactly why you should be 3-betting this flop. Even if you know UTG has a flush draw, you still have an equity edge because you are almost certainly ahead of the cutoff here.

In the scenario you describe, if I 3-bet the flop, lead the turn, and UTG+1 wakes up and raises, I'm probably folding, though it's close.