5/10 flop puzzle - Page 2

chopchoi · #11 10-10-2005, 10:01 PM

How broad is very broad? like random? If so, then there's a 1/8 chance that one of the loosey goosey's has a J, and a (3/47)(2/46)2 chance that one has 33. The reasonable players have little chance of holding a J (unless they have JJ) but the last one has a much better chance of holding 33.
Let's say there's a 1 in 6 chance that a J or 33 is out, In which case you are drawing practically dead.

A player has about a 16:1 chance of being dealt a pocket pair, but if they call a 6xbb raise, that chance goes up a lot. How much, I don't know. so, against 4 random hands, there would be a 1 in 4 chance that a pocket pair was out.
Let's say a pocket pair is 3x as likely among players who call the PF raise, so you figure there is a 3/4 chance someone holds a pocket pair.

So, it looks like you're behind about 90% of the time here. You have no hope of making money by being called by a worse hand. All You can hope for is to fold a better hand if it is out, or to suck out if they call you.

Yo have about a 25% chance of sucking out against a pocket pair, but there's that 1/6 of the time you're dead, and 5% of the time they fill up, so call it 20%. So, 10% Of the time a push wins you the pot with the best hand. x% you fold a pocket pair and win, and of the remainder you aren't dead and manage a successful suckout 20% of the time.

I don't know how big x is, but it would need to be pretty big to warrant a push here. I can't think anymore, but I'm convinced you should fold.

Position · #12 10-10-2005, 10:08 PM

Tied at 3-3. Apparently a close question!

dvo352 · #13 10-10-2005, 10:42 PM

You should have made it bigger than 50 preflop since you are OOP. But on that flop you are looking pretty dead. Chances are you are behind. I would probably check fold here. There are 4 players left to act. They all have you covered. A push doesn't seem like it will get all 4 of them to fold. IDK... the worst thing is that you are OOP.

beset7 · #14 10-10-2005, 10:45 PM

How does position really matter when its all-in or check/fold?

dvo352 · #15 10-10-2005, 11:02 PM

Well you could have at least got some information on them. If they lead out betting into your preflop raise with only 200 behind you then that would almost be begging for a call. You are shortstacked and they know that you would probably commit all your chips here. Plus, I was talking about his preflop raise. OOP, he should have made it more and just shoved on the flop so that he didn't have to think.