A question about a pokerpages article

[Schizo]

In this article:
http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/a...son-pohl16.htm

You will see this equation under scenerio 1:

EV = (.7485 * -2) + (.0303 * -7) + (.2212 * 9.5) = -1.497 -.2121 + 2.1014 = 0.3923

I fully understand that equation but what I don't understand is how the following equation:

{(6/45) * (39/44) + (12/45) * (6/44)} = 306/1980 = 15.45%

Is used to explain how .3923 small bets/hand profit is turned into a .2 small bets/hand loss,

Basically, what I'm asking, is once you get the 15.45% how do you use that % to prove that you are now losing money? Please keep in mind I understand how we get 15.45% and I understand how we get 0.3923 I just don't see how you get a -.2SB loss.

[AaronBrown]

The first equation assumes that the other player (the big blind who holds a pair of 8's) bets on the turn if a 9 or less appears. That means the player on the button holding KQ must pay for his river card if he doesn't hit on the turn. That makes raising less attractive.

[Schizo]

I made the most important text from the previous post in bold.

Basically, what I'm asking, is once you get the 15.45% how do you use that % to prove that you are now losing money? Please keep in mind I understand how we get 15.45% and I understand how we get 0.3923 I just don't see how you get a -.2SB loss.



Basically what I'm looking for is an equation that looks like this:

0.3923....(insert crap) .... 0.1545....(insert crap)... = -.2 SB's

[AaronBrown]

Sorry.

You can't go directly from one to the other, because the situation is now more complicated. But if you substitute the 0.1545 for the 0.2212 in the first equation, and assume the remaining 0.0667 times result in zero EV on average, you get -0.24 SB.

I think the author worked it out more precisely than this.