Nines

ALL1N · #1 10-23-2005, 09:37 AM

CO is your garden variety 44/27 (filtered 6-handed of course) LAG.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB folds, CO calls.

River: (11.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets

Thoughts?

sthief09 · #2 10-23-2005, 09:43 AM

44/27 at 30/60 come in all shapes and forms. there are the chip spewers and there are the type that just own me postflop.

anyway it's standard up until the river. I don't think I bet here because some of these guys are capable of folding. he knows his 87s is no good here and might not pay off. on the other hand, if he mades aces up he likely would've just bet since he knows you probably have a pocket pair.

so there aren't many hands that will pay off but at the same time there aren't many hands that have you beat. I think the latter outweighs the former though. he likely doesn't cap the flop with JT, T9, or T8, andhe could still be waiting to cr with acesup even though I think it's less likely

kapw7 · #3 10-23-2005, 09:43 AM

Do you fold to a C-R?

sthief09 · #4 10-23-2005, 09:44 AM

he has a pair of nines on an AQT76 board. what do you think [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

ggbman · #5 10-23-2005, 09:47 AM

I only like this bet if you think he will fold TJ or KT some of the time here. Otherwise there just isnt enuogh value in it, he has to have a calling hand worse than your more than half the time on that board.

sthief09 · #6 10-23-2005, 09:50 AM

oops I overlooked that it could be a bluff. without any further reads I'd assume he's calling that down. there is a select group of such lags though that this might be a good bluff against. against the range of 44/27 players I don't see this as a good value bluff

kapw7 · #7 10-23-2005, 09:50 AM

Sure but isn't that a good reason not to bet in case he bluff C-Rs if he is that sort of LAG type. Folding a winner in a ~14BB would suck.

Just wondering - I don't play anything near 30/60

sthief09 · #8 10-23-2005, 09:54 AM

sure, that's a reason to check behind, just not a major factor

ggbman · #9 10-23-2005, 10:03 AM

I certainly don't know if it was intended as a bluff. But these types of players are more than capable of making incorrect folds here from time to time. That said, if the intent of this bet was purely for value, i don't agree with it. Maybe its +EV with bluff equity, i really have no idea.

ALL1N · #10 10-23-2005, 10:11 AM

Yeah it was intended as a bluff.