QJo 20-40

[lil feller]

If the players are truly as "weak/loose/passive" as Mike indicated. Nobody, and I mean nobody is folding any Jack here. They won't like the Ace, they won't like the club, but they won't care enough about either to fold. They'll want to see.

Now if Mike's description of sed players wasn't entirely complete/accurate, and they are capable of putting him on a flush draw or AJ, and not wanting to see it, this bet has value. Very much player dependant I guess.

On the other hand, unless one of them has AJ, you probably don't stand to loose anything, so I suppose it can't hurt to try.

lf

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]
so I suppose it can't hurt to try.

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as he can fold to a raise, which I don't think he can given the Ace that came on the river. Somebody might pull a move here.

Other than that I agree with you.

[Net Warrior]

If these guys are fishy enough that you want to play QJo against them then why didn't you raise pre-flop? To me it's a raise or fold situation.

[MrTeddyKGB]

no tying or better hand will fold. No worse hand will call. Scary river card. If this is a good bet can someone help me understand. If I had this hand I would check the river so fast that their heads would spin. Is this a value bet or a semi-bluff repesenting a flush hoping a J will fold.

[random]

[ QUOTE ]
"The likelihood of chopping makes the river bet -EV IMO."

it was precisely because i sensed i might be chopping with one or both players that led me to bet the river...

[/ QUOTE ]If you bet, Jx calls, and then Jx folds, you only gain 1/6th of the pot. At least one of them is going to showdown, right? You know that the board sucks for them if all they have is a jack. It sucks for you, too. I'd be thinking I'm losing before thinking about squeezing out some extra value. I would check.

I don't know what your definition of "fairly reasonable" preflop is. I'm finding it difficult to put them on hands, moreso hands that you can beat. But I'm going to take a shot in the dark anyway, cause it is fun:

Old man had kings?
UTG+1 QJ?

[mike l.]

"Is this a value bet or a semi-bluff repesenting a flush hoping a J will fold."

both.

i bet the river, old man called, guy in between said gee i guess i cant call now and folded flashing a J. i flipped my hand up and old man showed 99. guy in between said he had JT.

[mike l.]

"If the players are truly as "weak/loose/passive" as Mike indicated."

i said they were weak but not incredibly loose. if they were very loose passive i wouldve said fish or terrible or A2c.

"On the other hand, unless one of them has AJ, you probably don't stand to lose anything, so I suppose it can't hurt to try."

exactly.

[mike l.]

"Somebody might pull a move here."

no way on earth are one of these guys pulling a move here. they are weak, remember? they are not gonna pull out a checkraise river move.

[mike l.]

"the board sucks for them if all they have is a jack. It sucks for you, too. I'd be thinking I'm losing before thinking about squeezing out some extra value. I would check."

in what way does the board suck for me once they check to me on the river? why on earth would i be thinking im losing? i started to fear i might be losing to KJ or something like A4 on the flop and the turn, but by the time the river comes and theyre still checking i dont see how you can think i should be worried.

[Ryno]

So, old man can't close the action, puts the other guy on the flush, and now really thinks you have a 4. He dumps his hand. UTG+1 shows a Jack and you make an extra 2BB.

Neat idea. If the action can go "check-check-bet-fold-raise-fold" then really neat idea. The problem is that when old men think for a long time and then call, that is their showdown-committal decision right there. Maybe the fact that he did it on the flop means it's not too late, but half the time they already have their chips in their hand, with their eyes closed. And UTG+1 could have the flush - weak players check flushes on the river when aggros like yourself have been betting all the way. This is how they get back at you.