river bet?

bakku · #1 12-04-2005, 03:25 AM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

oops forgot reads
SB slightly LAG but not a retard
BB very loose very passive
MP very lose very passive
CO loose, a bit laggy

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (17.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, CO checks, i do what?

Spicymoose · #2 12-04-2005, 03:28 AM

Bet that river! Tons of value! If you get check raised, I think easy fold, but I could be wrong. With 5 players, and noone leading the river, I expect we good. I think we could at least get 1-3 BB here.

jba · #3 12-04-2005, 03:31 AM

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Bet that river! Tons of value! If you get check raised, I think easy fold, but I could be wrong. With 5 players, and noone leading the river, I expect we good. I think we could at least get 1-3 BB here.

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respectfully disagree. I think SB has us beat or weirdly split almost all the time here with two pair or a set and is just scared of the four cards to broadway.

SB capped preflop yo

Spicymoose · #4 12-04-2005, 03:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet that river! Tons of value! If you get check raised, I think easy fold, but I could be wrong. With 5 players, and noone leading the river, I expect we good. I think we could at least get 1-3 BB here.

[/ QUOTE ]

respectfully disagree. I think SB has us beat or weirdly split almost all the time here with two pair or a set and is just scared of the four cards to broadway.

SB capped preflop yo

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Yeah, I guess you are right. This definetly makes it close for me. Remember though, with so many opponents, we only need to be right not so often, as we could win more than 1 BB, but could lose at most 1 BB. It is true that SB might have us beat though. I dunno, I think its close.

admiralfluff · #5 12-04-2005, 03:34 AM

any reads, esp. on SB? If he's a tight enough capper that you don't raise the flop, I don't see what hand he could possibly have that you beat on the river. He probably got scared with a set or better 2 pair, or is getting tricky with TT. I don't think he has 99 or worse often enough to bet, but that also depends on how many other callers you are likely to get.

B Dids · #6 12-04-2005, 03:44 AM

I'm having a hard time finding value in a bet there. A crying check maybe?

admiralfluff · #7 12-04-2005, 04:06 AM

The more I think about it the more I like raising the flop. If SB reraises, having 2 other players to act after him really makes this juicier. They either call, so our deficit is not as large, or they fold, so our equity share is larger. It would be even better if we had strong enough reads on SB so we could fold the river UI.

MrWookie47 · #8 12-04-2005, 04:11 AM

Our equity share is larger? Really? I'd be a pretty marginal increase. If SB 3bets us, we can be pretty sure we're drawing to 5 outs or fewer. If, hypothetically, one or two of those outs are tainted, we get an increase in equity of no more than 8%. If we knew we would be gaining that much in this huge pot, it'd be worth it, but I don't think our gain in equity will be worth 2 SB very often.

admiralfluff · #9 12-04-2005, 04:15 AM

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's worth it to get 3-bet, but we will gain SOME equity in this huge pot, which will hedge the cost. The flop raise itself should be for value.

in short: with 2 other players left to act behing SB, the cost of the risk of getting 3 bet is lower than it would be HU with SB.

Redd · #10 12-04-2005, 12:54 PM

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If, hypothetically, one or two of those outs are tainted, we get an increase in equity of no more than 8%.

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Wookie, how did you get this 8%?