Deal or No Deal

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Play the online game at nbc.com a few times, and you'll see how crazy this approach is. Your EV at the very start is over $130,000 (I worked it out, but forget the exact number). With the low offers they give you, there's no way you should accept anything until there are, say, 8 suitcases left. It's extremely unlikely that you'll wind up with less than $10K if you stop gambling around that time, and even then you'll usually be in a position to keep going for a little bit while getting odds you can't pass up and a variance you can stomach.

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Yeah, I see your point. I exaggerated on my part for the 10k... but near the end when some of these people are trying to decide for the deals >100k, It comes into play. I was just trying to make the point that you can't fault someone for making the "incorrect" choice, if the money would mean that much to them.

anyways...I think they're going to spice this game up or it won't be around long. any ideas?

[chuddo]

clearly i need to become a pro deal or no deal player:



look at the dumb deal they offer when i am down to 750k and 1M.

methinks the calculator is a bit screwy.

"hmm..im guaranteed either 750k or 1mil...but i could save myself the hastle of opening another briefcase for 680k.... ill take it!"

[Homer]

Damn, and I was just about to start a thread on this. What a horrible show. I want to kill each and every one of these people.

I missed this last night, but damn, this show sucks. It's so obvious they don't want anyone to ever take the deal.

Howie is a crappy game show host. His stand-up in the 80s was awesome, but then he decided to stop being funny.

[skiier04]

99k what a horrible deal.

[alekhine8]

$99k? Is the 'banker' a moron? Seriously?

[Wes ManTooth]

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Damn, and I was just about to start a thread on this. What a horrible show. I want to kill each and every one of these people.

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[MaxPower]

Every offer from the banker so far is way below EV.

[tpir90036]

I actually like this show just for trying to figure out what the people are thinking and what they are going to do.

I am curious as to whether there is an algorithm for the "deals" they offer or if the bank sometimes [censored] with people. Like if it's down to $0.01 and $1,000,000 offer them something like $100K. Or if the bank knows the contents and tries to drive them towards a decision... or bluff!

Even better would be investigating their lives and coming up with evil amounts:

"OK, Tom... your daughter just got accpeted to college. Her 4-year education at Maryland is going to cost you $65,235. The bank's offer is $65,235."

[valenzuela]

a cousin of mine won 10k on that show( chilean version is more modest), btw its *always* +EV to say " no deal". I hate how people take soooooo painfully long, just choose soemthing quickly!!!