Cautious Full House?

[Ironman]

Hi Guys,

Last night was playing at the 2/4 limit table at UB.

Fairly passive. 10 players.

Flop comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I hold a pair of 7's in my hand in the big blind.

I decided to bet out, getting it heads up, and kept the pressure on the whole way.

But, since it is unlikely that someone at this level would fold one of the other two 9's, maybe it would be better to go into check/call mode on the turn and river.

Any thoughts on this?

Dave

[Buzz]

Dave - How many opponnents saw the flop with you?

Buzz

[Ironman]

Five to the flop. No pre flop raises.

Dave

I bet out here. If i get more than 1 caller I slow down a lot, but I would keep the pressure on. What r ur other 2 cards? Do u have a redraw to the a good low or anything like that. If called by one person and no matter what the card is i fire. If the turn/river comes low,low. Bet out/call. If not I think that betting and then check/calling the river is the right move. Even though its not likely than anything that can beat u would bet the river there is too much money in the pot to just fold. If the turn comes a high card and or a low card and u dont have a redraw to a low and he raises u, u might consider folding. It depends what ur stats on ur opponent are and what u think of him. Its only max $8 with 2x5 + 2x2 + 4x2 = 10 +4+ 8 = 22 in the pot, so folding is still an option here. there is a good chance that weak player calls with openended straight draw and backdoor low/fd draw. It all depends on how u feel. Im curious what happened on the flop & turn.

[Ironman]

Oh the results aren't that exciting.

Turn was an Ace

I bet. He called.

River was a 5.

I bet. He called.

No raises at all.

He turned over 9, 5 with a bigger full house from the river.

Neither of us had low cards.

As I said, I was in the big blind.

Dave

[Buzz]

Dave - If you bet, who is going to call?

Assuming your opponents play well, I think nobody without a nine or two over-pairs will call your bet.

Encountering two over-pairs with five opponents seeing this flop is relatively rare, roughly a probability of 1%. So if you have able opponents, and if you bet and are called, it will most likely be by somebody with a nine. (There’s also a chance of running into an opponent who has flopped quad nines).

Your opponents are more likely to play starting hands with aces than with other cards. And since they probably also like wheel cards and picture cards better than nines, your opponents are less likely to see the flop when holding a nine. But everybody doesn’t shun nines and even players who do might occasionally play a starting hand that has a nine.

When you can see seven cards, two of which are nines, the probability no opponent holds a nine, if five opponents have random cards, is C(43,20)/C45,20) = 0.3030. Thus the odds are about 7 to 3 that at least one opponent holds at least one nine.

But they don't exactly have random cards. They're more likely to play hands with aces. How can we correct for that tendency?

Suppose we assume that at least one of five opponents who saw the flop is playing a hand with an ace. In that case, C(42,19)/C44,19) = 0.3171. It’s a bit less likely an opponent holds a nine, but the odds are still almost 7 to 3 that at least one opponent holds at least one nine.

Or if four opponents saw the flop, and if we assume at least one of them has an ace, then C(42,15)/C44,15) = 0.4292 and it’s about three to two that at least one opponent has at least one nine. (I’m doing these factorial calculations on a Texas instruments TI-34 hand held calculator, while eating a turkey sandwich).

At any rate, there's a pretty good chance one of your opponents has a nine and will call your bet - but it’s not out of the question for none of your opponents to have a nine and for them all to fold, or for someone to foolishly chase with a draw to a worse hand than you have flopped.

If one of your opponents does have a nine, unless it’s two nines or a nine plus a seven, you’re still the favorite. I simulated this and you figure to win in about a three to two ratio with five opponents who see the flop and in about a two to one ratio with four opponents who see the flop.

You gain from betting if someone folds an over-pair that would have connected with the turn or river to beat you. You also gain if an opponent plays a hand with one or two over-pairs and fails to connect on the turn or river.

You also gain from betting if someone foolishly chases with a draw to a worse hand than you have flopped (like two under-pairs, a flush draw, a straight draw, or a back-door draw). You gain from betting by making the runner-runner low draws pay through the nose to try to take half of your pot away from you. You also gain from betting from someone who gets stuck in the hand after flopping trip nines and who doesn’t improve.

You only lose if an opponent has flopped nines full or sevens or quad nines, or if an opponent improves flopped trip nines - and the odds are against any or all of that.

Bottom line: bet your flopped full house. You’ll usually win.

My philosophy is you try to get the odds on your side and you bet when they are. I think if you play this way, you'll win more than you'll lose. However, be aware that your flopped full house will get beaten fairly often, and take it in stride when that happens.

Buzz