1/2 nl live AQo

[meleader2]

stacks/position:

hero ~500$/BB, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
only scary villain has 600$ LP.

EP villain raises to 7$, 5 callers, hero makes it 25$. everyone calls, in fact someone goes all in for 30$ total, everyone just calls the 5$.

flop (176$ after rake):

7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

checks to scary villain who pushes. small stack calls for 30$, puts his head down (he has been beaten real bad all night), hero ?

[djoyce003]

it's a fold right....you are around 30% to win....i'm thinking your q outs are no good, and your ace outs *might* be good but I doubt it.

[gol4pro]

You're not clear who has position on who (with regards to scary villian).

If you checked this flop... you brought this tough decision upon yourself.

If villian donkbet you all in, I fold and feel good about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Come on Bryce, there are more important things than SRI LANKA to worry about...

[/ QUOTE ]


This movie has so many great quotes, "dont just stand there, eat it."

Put everyone all in a spike a spade. This game is so easy.

[Vitaliy]

Quick decision is quite easy and already been suggested - folding will not hurt you much. For calling here you need strong reads on your oppnents in order to narrow down hands they might be having (especially LP). And I don't see how can anybody calculate odds in this situation.

Analyzing this hand I can think of something like this:

His hand / Prob. having it / Win% / Conrib.%

Kx one spade / 30% / 44% / 8.80%
Pair / 20% / 49% / 9.80%
2 pair / 10% / 35% / 3.50%
Trips / 30% / 28% / 8.40%
Flush / 10% / 28% 2.80%

Your overall win% having this is 37.7%.

Of course I don't know this guy and his % might be much different from what I used.

Anyway having this your pot odds are 1.65 to 1.

So you need to call $475 to win $475+$176+$30=$681. Pot odds suggest that pot needs to be $783+ (475*1.65) for profitable call. So you are about $100 short. Now question to you - will other people who are still in the hand put this $100 seeing this madness? Again - I don't think so.

So even very optimistic calculations suggest to let this hand go.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick decision is quite easy and already been suggested - folding will not hurt you much. For calling here you need strong reads on your oppnents in order to narrow down hands they might be having (especially LP). And I don't see how can anybody calculate odds in this situation.

Analyzing this hand I can think of something like this:

His hand / Prob. having it / Win% / Conrib.%

Kx one spade / 30% / 44% / 8.80%
Pair / 20% / 49% / 9.80%
2 pair / 10% / 35% / 3.50%
Trips / 30% / 28% / 8.40%
Flush / 10% / 28% 2.80%

Your overall win% having this is 37.7%.

Of course I don't know this guy and his % might be much different from what I used.

Anyway having this your pot odds are 1.65 to 1.

So you need to call $475 to win $475+$176+$30=$681. Pot odds suggest that pot needs to be $783+ (475*1.65) for profitable call. So you are about $100 short. Now question to you - will other people who are still in the hand put this $100 seeing this madness? Again - I don't think so.

So even very optimistic calculations suggest to let this hand go.

[/ QUOTE ]


very nice post. i folded, noone else called, he had J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit river, i cried inside but knew it was the right fold.

thanks for all the suggestions!

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
stacks/position:

hero ~500$/BB, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
only scary villain has 600$ LP.

EP villain raises to 7$, 5 callers, hero makes it 25$. everyone calls, in fact someone goes all in for 30$ total, everyone just calls the 5$.

flop (176$ after rake):

7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

checks to scary villain who pushes. small stack calls for 30$, puts his head down (he has been beaten real bad all night), hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why check the flop? Lead for $150.