implied odds calculation

[madscout]

This is a cross post from the probability section. I figure you high stakes guys are always taking this into consideration and might be able to offer your thoughts. Thanks!

I recently played in a raised pot heads up where I got an OE straight draw on the flop, which was king high with two hearts. I was assuming I had 8 outs, possibly 6 if my opponent had the flush draw.

He made a 1/2 pot size bets on the flop, which I called.
Turn was a blank, and another 1/2 size pot bet. At this point he is betting about $10 into a $20 pot and has $30 behind, I have him covered.

I feel like he will have a hard time releasing if I connect my straight (I had a double gapped connector.. hard to see on the board if I hit). I call and hit my straight on the river, no heart. He bets $10 more and I put him all in. He hesitates and calls, showing Qh Kh. I breathed a sigh of relief knowing that I was drawing much more slim than I had thought!

In analyzing the situation, I created an excel spread sheet where you enter some key variables: opponents stack, my stack, pot size, size of the bet I need to call, number of live outs, and the probability my opponent will pay me off if I connect. It then outputs (implied odds) / (odds of making my hand on the NEXT card), if it is > 1 it highlights green, if it is < 1 it highlights red. If I assume my opponent pays me off 100% of the time, it turns out my call was correct if I had 8 outs, but incorrect if I had 6:



Do those numbers seem correct to the math guys out there?

Another way to look at it is, say 10% of the time this situation arises he has two hearts (just a rough estimate, er guess)... on average this gives me 0.1*6 + 0.9*8 = 7.8 outs. Also, if we assume he pays me off 100% of the time I connect with my 6 non-heart outs, and 0% of the time I connect with my 2 heart outs (because he's afraid of the flush when he doesn't have it), he will pay me off 1.0*( 6/8 ) + 0.0*( 2/8 ) = 75% of the time:



This would make my calls on the flop and turn correct in the long run.

This is not the exact correct way to analyze the situation, because a true EV analysis of this hand would have to include the times I pay him off when he makes his flush and I make my straight. Any thoughts?
Thanks in advance!

~madscout