Bluff this river?

bobbyi · #1 10-31-2005, 04:32 AM

Don't know much about opponent other than stats.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, SB (40/3/1.2/42) calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

etizzle · #2 10-31-2005, 04:34 AM

for some reason this decision is very interesting to me. I am going to dick around with the numbers and be back in a little bit.

bobbyi · #3 10-31-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
for some reason this decision is very interesting to me. I am going to dick around with the numbers and be back in a little bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you find anything? I would be interested in numbers. I checked here and my intuition is the same as most people in the thread: that I get called by ace high or a pair too often to make betting worthwhile. It seems like it is probably close though because if my bet results in him folding a better hand even 10% of the time it is worthwhile (I don't need him to have a better hand and fold it 1 time in 8 because often he has a worse hand and folds and in those situations I'm not giving anything up by betting).

TomBrooks · #4 10-31-2005, 04:45 AM

Check it through. He's likely putting you on overcards and probably won't fold any pair. He is loose and could have called with a hand that has a five or six and I don't think he'll fold it. He could have a T8 or T7 and be afraid of being outkicked. He might fold a king or an ace, but I don't know if this will be his holding and happen enough to invest another bet.

kapw7 · #5 10-31-2005, 04:45 AM

You give him 7:1 pot odds.
Do you think he can fold A-high?
Otherwise your bluff bet has some value if he folds K-high (KJ or KQ) and you win half a pot if he folds QJ.
I'm not sure but even the possibility of him folding these hands together with the big odds for the bluff make it worthwhile (?)

jdl22 · #6 10-31-2005, 04:47 AM

Check.

I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of, A high maybe but most of these guys will fold the turn I would think. My guess is he has some pair or has just picked up a third nine.

bobbyi · #7 10-31-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would I want him to fold hands that I'm ahead of?

jdl22 · #8 10-31-2005, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would I want him to fold hands that I'm ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I meant behind. I could maybe see a fold for K high or whatever but it's much more likely that he has a crappy pair or A high and would call it down. I don't see you getting a fold often enough for the bluff to work and a worse hand isn't calling.

baronzeus · #9 10-31-2005, 04:47 AM

honestly, i would never ever bet here. but that doesn't mean im right. i just know that with my luck i will be called down whenever i bet and whenever i check he will have K high.

jfresh · #10 10-31-2005, 04:50 AM

i don't tihnk there is anything that called the flop and turn that is gonna fold this river, so i think i would just check..