Running good/bad

[bambi]

I recently read by a respected 30/60 player, that it is possible for people to run bad for over a million hands at a time, now for some people this is there life of poker, so in theory you could take said player who plays near perfect poker yet be a loser?

On the other hand if somebody can run bad for a million hands, then it also means that somebody can be running good for a million hands, and not have a winning poker game, but yet show a profit.

This is interesting as many live players play no where as many hands as some online players, and i am shure they would struggle reaching 1m hands in three or four years if not longer, meaning if you are unfortunate enough to run through this patch you have many years of unhappiness ahead.

So how many hands is enough to rate wether you are a winning or losing player?

Well does that matter? if it is possible to run bad for years at a time, your pretty much screwed, especially if this bad run happens at the start of your career, you would want to garuntee some good patches ahead, to overcome the bad runs.

Just some thoughts

[ncboiler]

No hand sample size number will say you are 100% certain of being a winner or loser. The larger the sample size only increases the certainty that the null hypothosis is correct or incorrect.

[Harv72b]

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Well does that matter?

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No.

The slightest amount of honesty with ones' self should allow him to figure out if he is or is not a winning player long before 1 million hands transpire.

Speaking of, it's theoretically possible to be dealt pocket aces one million times in a row. That doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Seriously, though: as far as the question "am I a winning player?" goes...if you're still asking that, you probably aren't.

[bambi]

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[ QUOTE ]
Well does that matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

The slightest amount of honesty with ones' self should allow him to figure out if he is or is not a winning player long before 1 million hands transpire.

Speaking of, it's theoretically possible to be dealt pocket aces one million times in a row. That doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Seriously, though: as far as the question "am I a winning player?" goes...if you're still asking that, you probably aren't.

[/ QUOTE ]

So by what you are saying, it is possible for someone to believe them to be a winning player, but show loses, yet still play winning poker

[ncboiler]

[quote

Seriously, though: as far as the question "am I a winning player?" goes...if you're still asking that, you probably aren't.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should always be asking yourself this question. If the answer is yes then ask "should I move up?"

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I believe what he is trying to say is that once you get past a certain point you are easily able to determine whether or not you are a favorite in a game. The area inbetween where you are not sure usually means you are somewhere between a marginal winner to mild loser. Just because you cannot prove it using math does not mean it's impossible to determine. Some of the better posters in the SS and most in the Mid high could watch you play for 40 mins or so and determine whether you can beat a game.

Although almost all of us are playing for money, at some point in time you really cannot grow until you stop caring about the swing. After a certain point your only concern with money should be not being underbankrolled etc etc. I know this may seem impossible now, but eventually you will care less and less.

[Harv72b]

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I believe what he is trying to say is that once you get past a certain point you are easily able to determine whether or not you are a favorite in a game.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a nutshell, yes.

The second-worst player in the world is a winning player, so long as he only plays heads up matches against the worst player in the world. The sixth best player in the world would be a losing player if he decided to only play against the top 5.

As long as you are better than the majority of your opponents, you will win in the long run. And, after enough experience at the game, you should be able to judge fairly quickly (and reliably) whether or not you are better than the majority in the game you sit at.

I remember when I first started posting on this forum, that I was really hung up on win rates & so on and couldn't figure out how anyone could find that unimportant. I mean, your win rate is important in so far as you want to make money while playing the game, but all it really comes down to is being better than the people you play against. If you are, you'll come out ahead (eventually). If you aren't, find some weaker opposition (i.e., drop down) and keep practicing until you are.