Satellite on the bubble - push into minraiser with KK?

Late in a small satellite with 49 entrants. 6 tickets. 7 players left. Blinds 300/600. You're the second shortest stack at the table in the BB with T4400. Shortest stack has T3000.

Large stack (T12000) in MP minraises to 1200.

You look down at KK. What do you do?

Results in white:
<font color="white">I was the big stack and I had A8. BB pushed and I figured that there was a big chance that I was a dog. But I still called for a chance to finish the satellite.
If I lost, there'd still be the shortest stack left to work on and I'd be in decent shape to coast my way to a ticket. I caught an ace on the flop and won the hand. And I can't figure out if risking a knockout here is +$EV for the KK hand even if he's a 70/30 favorite.</font>

Tough one. Is calling to make sure no ace flops an option? Push any non-ace flop. Check/fold an ace flop and live to fight another hand?

[betgo]

Easy push. You are the 2nd shortest stack and KK is a big hand.

I think this is a definite push for the kings. If the short stack wins even one pot at this blind level he'll surpass you. I don't think he can afford to wait for a better spot than this. Winning this pot will give him a comfortable stack, and he'll probably be able to bide his time until the short stack goes broke. I know there are special satellite bubble factors that make this close, but in this situation it looks like a push to me.

Sorry for not responding earlier. It was getting late and I had to get some sleep.

I've done some independent chip model calculations. The calculations below assume that you think the ICM is a good approximation of the dollar value of your stack. I do.

If you fold, you're still 67% to win a ticket.
If you push and win, you'll be 89% to win a ticket.

Your expectation - if you push and get called - is
EV = (probability to win) * .89 - .67

If we want to find the probability to win where we break even, we set EV = 0. Then rearrange the equation to
Probability to win = .67 / .89 = .75

So you need to be 75% to win to break even. And you're not. So you should fold. Of course this discounts the chance that I would have folded or that I held a lower PP. So it's probably very close. But it's not an easy push. I think I'd call and push on a non-ace board myself.

Another thing you could argue is that I (as the big stack) should keep out of hands like this too. I almost gain nothing since I'm about 96% to win a ticket. But I almost lose nothing as well, when I lose. I'd go from 96% to win a ticket to 87%. The person that really wins in this hand is the short stack who wins about half a ticket.

[madmisha]

I think part of the assumption that the ICM is approximated by your chip equity is that you will still be playing poker. If you had the sit out button on for instance you ICM would be lower than your chip equity. Part of keeping your equity has to be playing kings correctly, stealing when appropriate, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
I think part of the assumption that the ICM is approximated by your chip equity is that you will still be playing poker. If you had the sit out button on for instance you ICM would be lower than your chip equity. Part of keeping your equity has to be playing kings correctly, stealing when appropriate, etc.

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If ICM says not to play kings, don't play them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].


In this case, however, I don't think that it does. As OP said, without fold equity and the chance that big stack has a low PP, this is close (although it's a fold). Factor in those two things, and it's a pretty easy push.

P.S. OP, why'd you min raise? I probably just fold because I've already won, but if I raise, I'm pushing.

[betgo]

I am not sure I accept your 67% and 89% win percentages, although they are fairly close. Also, the miniraiser may fold to the push.

Furthermore, your win percentage with KK is less than 77% but not much less. KK is about 80% versus a pp, 70% against Ax, 90% against Kx, and 20% against AA.

OP has pretty much locked up a seat, but miniraising with a marginal hand like A8o is very bad. A lot of people play the way OP did. However, OP should not play except for maybe calling a short stack with a big pair or something.

[ QUOTE ]
Tough one. Is calling to make sure no ace flops an option? Push any non-ace flop. Check/fold an ace flop and live to fight another hand?

[/ QUOTE ]


no this not an otion at all,your assuming the raiser reaised with Ax becasue you know what actually happend but in reality,the big stack could have any thing.
say he raised with 99 ,KK calls ,flop comes 2 5 9.
this a none A flop as you called it,but a push with almost deffo kill KK but had the KK pushed pre-flop then the original raiser would more than likely fold.

He's getting 2:1 odds with the large stack and a chance to knock out the last player. How much FE do you think you have?