HH - excessive tightness versus bubble push?

[Big Limpin']

In words: Im in the SB with AJ. The blinds are real high, and one dude has most of the chips. 3 of us shorties are sharing the remaining 6 big blinds. i slightly cover them. I think what is key here is that the BB has posted most (but not all) of his chips.

The bigstack fold, and button pushes. Is hero's AJo callable here? I give my rationale in a bit.

In pseudo-converter: (not a PP game)

300/600 (4 handed)

MP (plenty-o-chips)
Button (2.0 BB)
Hero in SB (2.5 BB prepost)
BB (1.5 BB prepost)

Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Bigstack open folds, so Button pooshes.

My gorilla math:

So i fold. Is this kosher? This is a $50, so i give villain credit for understanding that BB is almost certainly calling him. Note that BB dude wouldnt make it out of blinds by folding, hes allin posting the SB next hand.

I have to give the push credit for a big hand.

If i fold: BB almost certainly calls. Somebody gets broke/crippled. I get 3rd place, but with little chance of finsihing higher.

If i call: This is about the only way i can see BB folding. If he does fold...If i win, i'm lock 2nd, some hope of HU-luckboxing 1st. If i lose, im crippled but BB dude is allin next hand and im not, i'd give myself even money odds of getting 3rd here. And if i call, and BB comes with, then losing the hand probably still gets me 3rd.

Summarizing..folding is almost lock ITM, but likely 3rd place. Calling is more risk of busting (next hand), but affords me upward mobility should i win.

So..... like or hate the fold?

BL' - who suspects he will learn alot from peoples opinions here.

Edit: While of course i care about the overall consensus (call/fold), what im really interested in is the thought process of others in this situation.

[golfcchs]

I push this because can't the bb fold to the big stack next by your reasoning? Though I do like playing semi tight here.

[Big Limpin']

yo [ QUOTE ]
Note that BB dude wouldnt make it out of blinds by folding, hes allin posting the SB next hand.


[/ QUOTE ] and also im not pushing. im calling.

[golfcchs]

Wont bb have 2bb if you fold to him? 1.5+.5=2

[Pete H]

[ QUOTE ]
I push this because can't the bb fold to the big stack next by your reasoning? Though I do like playing semi tight here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the BB could fold this and next SB and have some chips, then this would be easier to fold because then there's a chance that if you call and lose, nobody will be allin before your BB.

Now it's very tough decision.

Reasons to fold:
*60-65% chance to make it ITM immediately by folding.
*If BB wins, villain has 0.5BB left and there's about 50% chance he'll bust before you eat the blinds.

Reasons to call:
*You have 'em both covered and the reasonable range I put on villain gives you 55-60% equity, so there's about 50-55% chance to make ITM immediately by calling
*If BB folds, he'll be allin for SB next hand and there's about 50% chance for him to bust even if you lose.
*By calling and winning you'll have much better chances to finish 2nd and you'll also get few more 1st places

I'm at work now and don't have time to make proper calculations, but folding starts to sound better option.

I don't think the difference is that big though.

NP: Cynic - How Could I

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
Wont bb have 2bb if you fold to him? 1.5+.5=2

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you even making an effort to comprehend the situation? Seriously dude. THE BUTTON PUSHED. Thats the hole [censored] point.
1.5-1 = 1.0 BB

Look man. It takes extra time to read a post before responding, sure. But how long did you spent crafting these interesting questions? PLease stop posting in this thread. [/[censored] mode]

Buyin?

[Big Limpin']

Thanks Pete...i knew id get one serious response if i stayed up late enough [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Looks like you were thinking about the same stuff as me...on who would bust when, how badly crippled, and so on. I cant really add much to that, just wanted to talk a little about the hand range for villain.

You are thinking my AJ might be a slight fav against his range...and you could be totally right. I must have given him a tighter range at the time. I'm thinking that AJo is "55-60%" versus hand range of any PP, and ace, and king-face. I might be a little off on that, but i think its ballpark.

The thing is...i cant see how he could be so loose, given the situation. See, he *knows* he will be called, as the BB is so short. With zero FE, you would think he would hold tight without a monster, having now just enough to pay another set of blinds. Would you say a reasonable range for him would be mid-aces, KQ, and PPs? Even that i would suspect is a little looser than what he is pushing with. But my AJ is slight dog versus that range i think...45-50% i think. Not that this decision should be about piddling things like EV being 55/45 or 45/55.

But yeah man, thanks for the reply. I mentioned this issue b/c it was the only thing i could offer opinion on, so sorry its a little negative...everything else you say i agree fully.

BL'

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
Buyin?

[/ QUOTE ]

$50+4. Pokerroom.

[Pete H]

[ QUOTE ]

The thing is...i cant see how he could be so loose, given the situation. See, he *knows* he will be called, as the BB is so short. With zero FE, you would think he would hold tight without a monster, having now just enough to pay another set of blinds. Would you say a reasonable range for him would be mid-aces, KQ, and PPs? Even that i would suspect is a little looser than what he is pushing with. But my AJ is slight dog versus that range i think...45-50% i think. Not that this decision should be about piddling things like EV being 55/45 or 45/55.

[/ QUOTE ]

The wider range I used was any pair, any ace and any two broadway. Now I'm pretty sure (reasons to be revealed later in this post) this is too wide.

Tighter I used was A2+,22+, and this I believe isn't too far from truth.

And the reason.
I'm pretty sure you had 55 on your original title so I thought this was from Party tourney.
I believe average PP 55er is pushing more hands than Pokerroom 54er (I've never played in PR 54, but 33s and lower the players tend to be tighter than PP players)

With your range it's easy fold as it increases your chances to lose quite a lot.

[ QUOTE ]

I mentioned this issue b/c it was the only thing i could offer opinion on, so sorry its a little negative...


[/ QUOTE ]

No problem.

Obviously you have better feel on his range and thinking the reasons why our ranges were different is helpful, so thanks for your reply too.