Flop Play 20-40 - Page 2

edtost · #11 09-10-2005, 04:39 PM

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[...] but you do need to open up SH.

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while i'm not really qualified to respond, a lot of players i respect a lot (tommy angelo, ja sucker, etc) have expressed disagreement with the above on this forum many times before.

edit: trimmed the quote for clarity.

ggbman · #12 09-10-2005, 04:54 PM

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I'm ok with this. I wouldn't expect UTG to fold a mid PP here or on the turn. However, I would expect him to fold many hands that are ahead of you either here or on the turn. CO is likely to be unpaired based on your read, and will likely fold the turn as well. It is a fine play.

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I don't know if you play the 20-40 a lot, but theres no [censored] way most people are mucking 55 or better on turn here unless a very scary card hits.

CardSharpCook · #13 09-10-2005, 05:12 PM

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I'm ok with this. I wouldn't expect UTG to fold a mid PP here or on the turn. However, I would expect him to fold many hands that are ahead of you either here or on the turn. CO is likely to be unpaired based on your read, and will likely fold the turn as well. It is a fine play.

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I don't know if you play the 20-40 a lot, but theres no [censored] way most people are mucking 55 or better on turn here unless a very scary card hits.

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I imagine this is why I said, "I don't think UTG is going to fold a mid PP here or on the turn."

ggbman · #14 09-10-2005, 05:13 PM

You know what's really funny? WHen i make an ass out of myself misreading someone else's post, thinking they said the exact opposite of what they did. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

steveyz · #15 09-10-2005, 05:15 PM

aah, I missed the 5-handed part. I think in that case, the pf call is ok, but I still think it should be folded unless UTG is a loose raiser and can find the muck postflop.

He said UTG was a bit too passive postflop with good hands. But what about Ax unimproved? Will UTG call down with that?

bicyclekick · #16 09-10-2005, 05:17 PM

I think it's a pretty decent play. Folding would be absolutely retarded. Calling just fine too. I do'nt mind raising because it's a protected pot with a guy that likely doesn't have [censored] either so you may as well find some folding equity I think. It's a little loose aggressive but it sure makes you a tougher player to play against.

siegfriedandroy · #17 09-10-2005, 07:28 PM

bk can you explain why folding the flop is so bad? everyone seems so convinced that no one has a pair, but there's no way to know for sure. if a q and/or spade draw is out, then we only have a couple clean outs. But i guess getting 8:1 it's close. can you elaborate on the flop decision, guys?

thanks

chio · #18 09-10-2005, 07:33 PM

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Neither of them are folding for 1 more, you're OOP with gaboinga and I guess will fire at anything that hits the turn.

Coupled with the hand where you c/r'd the turn and wondered whether to then ch/f the river, I wonder if you're being agro sometimes just for the sake of being agro. Not always having a plan to go with it. It's a leak.

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i agree with his analysis. only time i do something like this is when they are weak and i have a strong-tight image

CardSharpCook · #19 09-10-2005, 08:49 PM

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bk can you explain why folding the flop is so bad? everyone seems so convinced that no one has a pair, but there's no way to know for sure. if a q and/or spade draw is out, then we only have a couple clean outs. But i guess getting 8:1 it's close. can you elaborate on the flop decision, guys?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ] We can't be overly concerned about the flush draw. Aware of it, yes, but not concerned. We have no reason to believe that either one of them has paired. We have reason to believe CO has not paired. Every indication is that we have 10 live outs. True, only 3 give us the nuts, but we are not, of course, only playing for the nuts. So, now we ask the question, "if we ran this experiment 10000 times, what % of the time do we really have 10 outs?" Using this number we now discount our outs - say 8-9 outs. OK, now we clearly have the odds to call here, particularily because we can get more bets in on later streets. We can garuantee at least 1BB, and I think we'll average about 2BBs or 4 SBs if we hit one of our outs. Getting 8.5:1 on our money we only needed 5.5 outs to make this call if there was no further action. But, obviously there will be more action and that action will be good for us.

I like Michael's play because it encourages ace-high or K-high hands to fold on a missed turn.

bicyclekick · #20 09-11-2005, 02:22 AM

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bk can you explain why folding the flop is so bad? everyone seems so convinced that no one has a pair, but there's no way to know for sure. if a q and/or spade draw is out, then we only have a couple clean outs. But i guess getting 8:1 it's close. can you elaborate on the flop decision, guys?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ] We can't be overly concerned about the flush draw. Aware of it, yes, but not concerned. We have no reason to believe that either one of them has paired. We have reason to believe CO has not paired. Every indication is that we have 10 live outs. True, only 3 give us the nuts, but we are not, of course, only playing for the nuts. So, now we ask the question, "if we ran this experiment 10000 times, what % of the time do we really have 10 outs?" Using this number we now discount our outs - say 8-9 outs. OK, now we clearly have the odds to call here, particularily because we can get more bets in on later streets. We can garuantee at least 1BB, and I think we'll average about 2BBs or 4 SBs if we hit one of our outs. Getting 8.5:1 on our money we only needed 5.5 outs to make this call if there was no further action. But, obviously there will be more action and that action will be good for us.

I like Michael's play because it encourages ace-high or K-high hands to fold on a missed turn.

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Exactly.

The extra part of why I don't thnk anyone has anthing is because of the flop texture. The Q doesn't hit a ton of hands the raiser has, i mean, it could, but it's not like he's at least got a gutshot...he'll fold his JTs or KJo or often AJs there on the turn when you check/raise 2players like that. He'll be less likely to think you're trying to take the pot off him. and given the texture if the CO has a middle pair he's likely going to want to protect it and riase and he just called and on that bgoard it looks really weak.