20-40 Bellagio hand

[Michael Davis]

Here's a hand I played 6-handed at the Bellagio. Maybe it was 7-handed. I'm not an expert so I don't remember all the details.

Anyways, I've got (6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and limp after one limper with the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. This limpers seems too loose and seems to take weak hands (not complete garbage) too far. A lady behind me raises with the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] showing. Lady seems solid. A guy calls with the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] showing. He seems a little fishy, especially after this call. The 7 calls and I reraise. Everyone calls, four ways to fourth. There is one three and one diamond out.

So fourth brings:

Lady: (xxxx)Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Guy : (xxxx)T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Fish: (xxxx)7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Me : (6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

It's checked to me and I bet. I think the fish with 97 folded here, but I'm not sure, he might have taken one more off and caught a deuce or something. Anyways, the lady and the guy with T9 both called.

On 5th street, the lady catches an offsuit jack and has QJJ showing. The guy catches an offsuit J and has JT9 rainbow showing. I catch an open pair of fives. Both check to me and I bet, both call.

On 6th street, lady blanks out with a 6 (QJJ6), guy catches a 7 (JT97), I catch a 4 for two pair. It gets checked to me, I bet both call.

On the river I catch a 7 that gives me another unhelpful pair. It gets checked to me and I bet.

-Michael

[Michael Emery]

I like 3rd, I like 4th, I like 5th, could go either way sixth, dont like 7th, Mike. If you believe the lady with the queen in the door has two pair on 6th then you should obviously take a free card. If you think its close I like a bet for two reasons. The first being that you likely ensure yourself of a free showdown if you dont improve to two pair, and thus dont risk the possibility of getting bluffed out by just open jacks. The second being that even if you're behind you have a lot of outs to nail queens up. On seventh I cant see her laying down two pair here often enough to waste a bet. However, if you think she can you obviously made the correct play. Good to see you posting a stud hand, Mike.

Mike Emery

[Michael Davis]

I'm not sure how often she lays down either, and I definitely do not think my river bet is for value. 6th was bet with the intention of following through on 7th, otherwise I would have just checked 6th and likely folded to a river bet.

But I do have her jammed in pretty good, and I'm clearly representing a high buried pocket pair. My read is that she's a decent player, and that as every street goes on and I keep betting she's going to be more and more convinced that I have her beat. I've got her stuck in between somebody who has represented a strong hand the entire way and a drawing hand.

So yeah, I need a real big parlay for this to work. Since I don't think I'm getting any value on the river, I'm risking some fraction of a bet on 6th (I have some drawing out/actually having best hand equity) and a full bet on 7th to try and get her to fold a higher two pair while the other guy misses his draw and/or fails to make a second pair. I think it's probably not worth it, but really, if she's at all adept at reading hands, there should be no way she thinks I don't have her beat on the end, especially given the paucity of aces and kings on the board.

-Michael

[bugstud]

am I wrong in thinking that she has a large buried pair here some meaningful % of the time.

[Michael Davis]

"am I wrong in thinking that she has a large buried pair here some meaningful % of the time."

No, but I think it's less likely than that she has Qs, or a smaller pair, or even something like AKQ that turned into a broadway draw on 4th. If she has a larger buried pair she probably plays faster on 3rd, since I'm only representing that I have her door card beat, I think?

-Michael

[frappeboy]

I like 3rd-5th, but I would have definitely taken a free card on 6th street. I don't think this is the time to attempt a bluff. The lady has jacks on board and the other guy has a gut shot straight on board. Given the action the lady definitely has 2 pair here (queens up is most likely). The other guy probably has a pair and straight draw. For this bluff to work you have to get queens up to fold AND she doesn't improve. At the same time guy #2 has to miss his straight and trips and also not be willing to call with 2 pair. Its just too likely someone is gonna keep you honest.

[Michael Davis]

Yeah I just took a short drive and realized that the real problem with trying this is that the guy with JT97 is just too likely to make a hand that looks me up (he's looking me up with two pair everytime I think). I had reasoned that the threat of his hand was good for me, because it put the lady in an awful position, but what could he really have at this point that I beat? A dry pair of Ts, or something like QJT997, so he's drawing heavy against every one of my hands if he doesn't already have me beat (he could be calling with two pair already), and the parlay just isn't worth it.

-Michael

[Andy B]

I'm looking you up with two pair every time, too.

I probably check behind on sixth, and definitely check behind on seventh.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking you up with two pair every time, too.



[/ QUOTE ]

Andy, you're a calling station.

Isn't sixth a great semibluff? Hero has 12 outs, and has seen somewhere around 18 cards.. meaning he's 24:12 to hit, but could also benefit from the woman with the jacks folding.

Michael, what did this woman look like? I might have given her a bunch of my money when I was in vegas. I hope you got my $$ from her. Was she older with short reddish hair?

What did the other schmo look like? Was he older with thick glasses and was an overall douche? He sucked out on me a few times. Kick him in the ballz if you see him again.

[Andy B]

I just don't see Michael buying this pot on sixth street often enough to qualify as a semi-bluff. How often will he get both opponents to fold? Ten percent of the time? Probably not even that much. Even if we assume that it's 2:1 against his improving, it's still not a value bet, since he won't win every time he improves. And I didn't see anything to indicate that all of his outs were completely live.

And yeah, I'm a pay station, what of it?