interesting zeejustin hand

[Roswell]

In Justin's writeup of the Party sunday tournament, he describes the following hand. I think Justin has about 100K chips. They are already in the money.

[ QUOTE ]
Another huge hand came up during 2k/4k blinds. I opened for 10k in early position with AK of hearts and only the small blind called. The flop came T83 with 2 diamonds and my opponent moved all-in for 26,500. There were 24k chips in the pot. There are three hands you will be shown in this spot. The first and most likely hand is a couple of overcards that missed the flop like KQo. The second most likely hand is a draw of some sort, most likely a flush draw. The third hand he could have is a small pocket pair. Given these three ranges of hands, and that only the least likely hand is ahead of me, I decided to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do people think of this play? It seems to me there's also a chance that the opponent has ace-ten, and is moving in to blow Justin off overcards.

[wiggs73]

I think if he had AT, he would go for a check-raise since it's likely that Zee would keep the lead in the hand since he opened PF. Being that he led with a push, I think AT is pretty unlikely. It's not like he'd be scared of an Ace hitting anyway and it's doubtful that Zee opened with an unpaired K,Q, or J from EP.

[MLG]

I think he feels pretty stupid the times the blind flips over A8 or even 66. But, against the right guy I'll trust ZJ's read.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he feels pretty stupid the times the blind flips over A8 or even 66. But, against the right guy I'll trust ZJ's read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think both of these are more likely than AT.

[KingMedicine]

i would have put the pusher on a flush draw, a strong 8 or a weak ten (maybe something like 10js).

my thinking when i do a move like the pusher has done is:

i hit part of the flop, im not folding here (given some sort of read that the pfr has an overpair (zj doesnt doesnt need a high pair to raise in this situation)) on a flop that likely missed the original raiser, i sure as [censored] dont want to give the raiser a free card to hit his Q or K or A if he raised with AK or AQ...

sure, there are some times the raiser will flip up JJ, QQ, KK or AA and im drawing slim, but i think there are more times he will fold pocket 7s or 9s or his two overcards, although it looks like z didnt here.

[Roswell]

Ok, so maybe it is unlikely the pusher has AT. But there are clearly other hands to throw into the pusher's range. For instance, a flush draw with live cards, like QdJd.

[KyleM]

If I were in the villain's position, with a stack less than 10 big blinds, pretty much the only hand that I'm doing this with is a pocket pair, and it seems like I always get called by AK. A draw? Probably only if I think my cards or live or I hit a pair. Thats just me though.

[locutus2002]

It's an EV++ call in all 3 cases that Justin identifies. (if villain shows you 99 you can call).

What impresses me is the fact that Justin is willing to risk a large portion of his chips in a marginal EV++ situation, with fairly little regard for his tournament standing. These plays build great table image.

[MLG]

If villain shows you 99 how can you call? You are a 3:1 dog, getting just slightly better than 2:1. Again overcards its a +EV call, same against draws, but if villain has any type of made hand, be it a small pair or even worse a pair with an A or K kicker, you are getting way the worst of it.

[locutus2002]

25% of the time you win 3$ = .75$
75% of the time you lose 1$. = .75$