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  #1  
Old 12-27-2005, 12:26 AM
PGarlic PGarlic is offline
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Default 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

Often, when I find myself in a really good game, I'll just sit there and wait for the lock before moving my chips in. What also occurs is that I'll slow down with premium hands after the flop. For example, I may check an over pair on the turn after potting the flop and getting multi way action. Why get carried away with one pair now when they'll pay off later? This entails the Nit's struggle for value. He's so focused on waiting for the cinch that money is lost in value, he also gives up his turn to take advantage of the loose game, the live ones eventually will go bust.

The following hand deals with this problem. The game is a full 20/40NL game.

Hero(~$6000)
villain1(~ infinite)
villain2(~ $4500)

I was playing in a must move game. The must move games at this particular casino usually has a lot of action, as the regulars usually start and remain in the main game. Today was no different, I got a early start when someone drawing to a flush led the betting on the turn and called my pot sized raise, when he missed on the river he moved in on me anyway, I called (but didn't like it) with a mediocre full house.

People tend to play different depending on whether they're currently up or down for the session. When a person is up he usually wants to avoid any big confrontations that could possible lead him to be, gasp!, down for the session. This stands true even if said situation leads to positive expected value. The opposite is true when a person is down for the session. He's more then willing to get all his money in as a dog as long as he stands a reasonable chance of winning, anything to get back to even.

One of the characteristics of a good poker player is that he realizes that poker is one long session. The amount of money won or lost on any one day is of no significance, as far as strategy is concerned. The following hand is not only an example of getting full value out of your hand but also making the correct risks, regardless of how well the player is doing so far.

Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in sb.

Villain1 limps UTG. Everyone folds around to villain 2 who limps in the CO. I choose to complete the SB and BB checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

This is a good flop for my hand. I decide to play it fast in hopes of winning a big pot.

Hero bets $120, villain 1 calls, villain 2 calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I really did not like this card. Both villains are capable of calling with middle or bottom pair. I decided I still wanted to continue with the hand, as such I wanted to be remain as the aggressor.

Hero bets $400, villain 1 folds, villain 2 calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks, villain 2 bets $800.

I checked rather quickly , I thought this was the best action given the villain's possible holdings. He called the flop and turn bets rather quickly, he also bet the $800 quickly after I checked. I sat there and thought about what villain could have here. I viewed villain as a very reckless player. He had little caution when it came to preflop selection and over valued his hand after the flop. He would call off a lot of money with marginal holdings, he would bet and would not stop betting if he thought he had the best hand on the flop. This led me to believe he definitely had something. A flush is of course possible, what about a full house? I concluded a set or two pair would be raised on the flop. If he called with a lone 5 he would raise the turn. So the only thing he could have is a smaller flush.

After thinking for about two minutes I ask him how much he had left. He looked genuinely surprised by this question and didn't really answer, just moved his hands away from his stack. A player next to him told me had about $2800 left and that I covered. “youch!” I thought, “that's a quite a bit left.” My nit instincts wanted me to play it safe and just call. Later I'll have top full house and I'll stack someone with trips, life will be good and simple. If he turned over a smaller flush though, I was gonna be sick. After much thought I decided he would call with a smaller flush if I moved in, so I did. He called instantly with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I felt good about myself after this hand. In my earlier days I would've played it safe and won a much smaller pot. By taking the time to think out everything though, I allowed myself to take a risky but profitable decision. Hopefully you'll take my example into consideration the next time you're facing heavy action with a good but not unbeatable hand, good luck!
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  #2  
Old 12-27-2005, 12:41 AM
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Default Re: 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

Quality post, enjoyed your sincere analysis.

For the record, the way that hand was played and from the information you provided on the actions of the Villain I would have pushed as well.

nh.
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  #3  
Old 12-27-2005, 01:19 AM
Ulysses Ulysses is offline
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Default Re: 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

PGarlic,

Does this mean NL is back in Colma?
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  #4  
Old 12-27-2005, 01:28 AM
PGarlic PGarlic is offline
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Default Re: 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

[ QUOTE ]
PGarlic,

Does this mean NL is back in Colma?

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be sweet. Alas I don't know. I haven't even tried to contact LC for a week or so. This hand occured a few weeks ago.
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  #5  
Old 12-28-2005, 05:37 PM
FlyingFetus FlyingFetus is offline
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Default Re: 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

I wish I had such exciting hands. Good read.
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  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:36 AM
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Default Re: 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

Great post.. One of the most interesting i've read up here in some time... Nice thoughts...
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:49 AM
Roswell Roswell is offline
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Default Re: 20/40 The Nit\'s Struggle for Value

Great post.

I agree with your reasoning as to why he did not have a full house. In addition to the things you mentioned, I think it is relevant that he quickly called your two bets (likely on a draw), and quickly bet the river. If he had the boat, he would probably have thought about how much you would pay off.

Lately I have been playing in really good NL games against really bad players (at the Bike and the Commerce.) I pretty much play in the style you describe: wait for huge hands then go allin (and I still get nine callers. In Los Angeles, nobody folds).

It's obviously the best meta-game strategy against terrible players. However, I think it's hurting my long-term prospects, because I'm avoiding marginal spots and tough decisions. I figure: why push a small edge, when a guy will put in $2000 with top pair against your set?
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