Yet Another Big River Fold

[StellarWind]

Let me join the 44 chorus and add some details.

1. 44 actually seems like a reasonable triple coldcall (as such things go) whereas most queens are completely ridiculous.

2. Where was his queen on the flop? The 77 story gives me the idea this player may have heard of protecting vulnerable hands. 44 is a probable flop call (versus raising) whereas AK/KQ/QJ/QT are possible flop calls. The flop call increases the relative likelihood of a 44 starting hand compared to a Qx starting hand.

3. Even if I could make this fold, you can't.

If I understand your previous posts correctly you are a very loose/aggressive player compared to most of us. This style of play filtered through the observations of a poor player is likely to leave the impression that you are out-of-control and unreliable. I'm not saying this is objectively true, but Button is unlikely to be able to preceive the method behind the madness. A feeling that your hand may not be as good as it sounds combined with previous examples of you being aggressive and eventually folding is about all a player at his level needs to take a shot with 44.

4. Objectively speaking a river bet with 44 is a very good play. Analysis of your betting makes 99 almost certain. It has to be right to take the 17-1 shot that you will do what you did.

[TheMetetron]

Please call. The reasons have been stated already.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

i hate fold posts.

[Michael Davis]

"i hate fold posts."

Me too. I'll try to make correct calls in the future so I don't have to post them.

-Michael

[antifish225]

you have to call this - 18-1 - do you really think that 17 out of 18 times he has the Q - imho there is not such thing as a 'tough/good' river fold in short handed limit holdem (ok maybe a couple - but not many when you are getting 20-1)

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate fold posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

one of the following is guaranteed to be true:

1 - you fold too many winners on the river.
2 - you call with a losing hand too often on the river.
3 - you play perfectly.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]


one of the following is guaranteed to be true:

1 - you fold too many winners on the river.
2 - you call with a losing hand too often on the river.
3 - you play perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Great! So I can keep raising 72o UTG and I'll be playing perfectly. Awesome.

Yes you're probably beat, but not 18 times out of 19 probably.

[SippinSoma]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes you're probably beat, but not 18 times out of 19 probably.

[/ QUOTE ]

What tilts me quicker -- only being good one out of 19 times, or having my unsatisfied curiosity wonde r if I folded a winner?

[BreakEvenPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i hate fold posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

one of the following is guaranteed to be true:

1 - you fold too many winners on the river.
2 - you call with a losing hand too often on the river.
3 - you play perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]


#2 is definitely true. but it is the leak in my game that has the least priority for improvement.