2-7 TD, improving to 1 card draw

[Roswell]

Let's say you open-raise with a hand like 238 and get reraised. You call and draw two, and the reraiser draws two as well. You catch a six for 2368. Is it preferable to lead into the raiser, since you improved?

[timprov]

Yes. Avoiding free draws is hugely important.

[MarkGritter]

Generally, yes. You might get raised by an aggressive player, especially if he is drawing to a 7, but it is one of the cheap streets so you shouldn't mind too much. (Some players will bet or raise any one-card draw, even ones worse than yours.)

Suppose your opponent has 732xx to your 642xx. When you draw an 8, there are 13 good cards left for him to catch (3 8s, 3 6s, 4 5s, 3 4s) in a stub of 42 cards.

So, about (29/42)*(28/41) = 47% of the time he draws no good cards. The calculations for when he has a pat hand are longer, I used a tool to calculate it as 7.3%.

So, 47% of the time you definitely prefer a bet because you have an equity edge and don't want to give a free card. 7% of the time you will probably get raised and lose 1 small bet. The remaining 46% of the time he has also improved and probably has a better draw (or a worse one with an 87) but will be unlikely to raise you; one bet would go in anyway if you check/called, since he is certain to bet if improved. (Knowing your opponent helps here. If he autobets when you check you might get in a raise while ahead!)

The bet you get on this street may be the last opportunity for profit in the hand. If you make a pat hand on the next draw and place a big bet your opponent may have bricked again and fold leaving you only the ~3.5 BB in the pot. Make him pay to draw.

(It might be possible, in some cases, that you want to keep the pot smaller in order to give your opponent incorrect odds on the next street. Such situations generally only arise in multiway pots, though, you almost certainly do not want to give a free card here while drawing to a vulnerable hand.)

[Roswell]

Thanks, I agree with the responses. This situation seems to come up frequently. It seems like a big error to give him a free draw if you improved. However, the bet after the first draw often seems to get raised, because opponents are pissed off that you are betting into their raise.

[kmvenne]

What happened to giving opponents improper odds to draw on the next street in a heads up pot? If you keep the pot at 2 BB's, check it over and he checks through, you draw 1 and he draws 2, you should be able to win the pot uncontested with a automatic lead. Like one poster said, he's only 7.4% to draw perfect next draw, the rest of the time you only offer him 3-1 on the call and you win the hand, as your opponent will have trouble doubting you are pat, and if you does doubt, you have a fairly good draw yourself. Aggressive players might raise you with worse, but you have a hand that would welcome someone pushing action with 8's and smooth 9's should you call off, now getting 5-1, and hit, winning up to a 9 BB pot due to the check after the first draw adding both equity and deception.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
What happened to giving opponents improper odds to draw on the next street in a heads up pot? If you keep the pot at 2 BB's, check it over and he checks through, you draw 1 and he draws 2, you should be able to win the pot uncontested with a automatic lead. Like one poster said, he's only 7.4% to draw perfect next draw, the rest of the time you only offer him 3-1 on the call and you win the hand, as your opponent will have trouble doubting you are pat, and if you does doubt, you have a fairly good draw yourself. Aggressive players might raise you with worse, but you have a hand that would welcome someone pushing action with 8's and smooth 9's should you call off, now getting 5-1, and hit, winning up to a 9 BB pot due to the check after the first draw adding both equity and deception.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is already 3+ BB in this situation, though, since villian has reraised before the first draw. So if you check through on this street villian is still getting 4:1 on the next round's bet.

[kmvenne]

Reading is hard. My mistake.

I think I still favor a deception check, but it's way closer now. Not sure any line you take here is particually incorrect. Raiser isn't going anywhere on this street.

I think it comes down to how you'd play the river if you hit before the last draw vs. a draw 1 from a 3-bettor. If you'd lead a non-876, lead here and make it look like a 96 or worse for the purposes of your value bet later (gotta make value to get value bets to work). If you'd check to him on a 86, then keep the pot small.

If the pot WAS 2 BB's, such as you called off in the BB, I like my previous line.

[randomstumbl]

My bias is certainly against the deception check, but I don't see the value at all in this situation.

We're assuming a normal opponent. We've got a one card draw to an okay 8. I'd be surprised if a normal opponent actually folded to the bet before the final draw if he improved to a one card draw (even if he isn't getting proper odds). You've already done something really, really weird that he doesn't understand. He'll call just to try to figure out what you're doing, not to mention that most players just love calling.

So, we know we're going to the river and we're pretty sure our opponent is going to the river unless he completely bricks the next draw. So, our betting isn't going to change the actions of a normal opponent at all.

In the end, it seems like we're not allowing him a mistake after the first draw to allow him to possibly make a mistake after the second draw. The thing is, we can usually get him to make both mistakes.

[n1bd]

I'm new to TDL, so can someone elaborate on this please? Is this check after improving after the first draw "known" to be a higher ev player for a certain range of pot sizes? Just because your pot control causes your opponent to make a mistake doesn't necessarily mean that that line is higher ev than a line in which he makes no mistakes; see http://groups.google.com/group/rec.g...733c24a551e640

Thanks in advance for any math/insights.