Drawing to overcards on the flop? Just a check-up.

[steveyz]

Those situations are no where close to being the same. You'd need probably 25:1 to peel with the 77 there.

[barry.egan]

all i was really trying to get at was that in essence you're drawing to 2 outs (the two non-spade queens) which when hit have a chance of being either no good or sucked out on the river.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
I would peel. The pot is big enough to justify drawing to your dirty outs.

this is obviously a clear peel if you have a spade.

sure reverse domination is a concern, but you are getting a good price. The question i how good does the price have to be?

I think it's close though.

paluka = how big does the pot have to be for you to peel?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how to answer that question, because I would have to know how the pot got bigger.
The thing I really don't like here is how many opponents you have.

[steveyz]

With the pair of 7s, you are drawing to 2 outs in the best possible scenario and are very likely to be drawing to 1 out or to runners.

With AQ, you are drawing 2 outs if one of your opponents has a flush draw and someone else has A8/A3/A2, which will be the case some of the time, but no where near the majority of the time. Many other times you will have 4 or 6 outs, which is not the case with 77.

Not to mention a flop of JTx is much more likely to have hit limpers than a 832 flop.

[barry.egan]

You're absolutly right. I think I'm just pushing for an example to push this more to a fold and mine isn't very close. Thanks for indulging me at least.

I do still think it's a fold. With one of the in between callers gone it might move it closer but the the overlay just doesn't seem enough to push it in this spot.

[stoxtrader]

i agree with steve. the situations are entirely different.

I think it's a call. just dont raise if you *improve* with an ace.

the math i thnk gets pretty complicated cause you combine some big assumptions. but I think the pot is big enough to justify here.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this hand is a classic example of where KQ might be a call, but AK is a fold. Your ace outs are reverse-dominated too often, and you don't have any spades in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that KQ is much better than A/big here.

b

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this hand is a classic example of where KQ might be a call, but AK is a fold. Your ace outs are reverse-dominated too often, and you don't have any spades in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather have AK, cuz Paluka will pay me off when a King hits. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[spoohunter]

I am quite surprised at the responses here.

You are getting 13:1, and it is rather unlikely you will face any more flop bets. You need roughly 3.5 outs to call here.

Generally, over cards are counted as half an out, and I think three outs is a fair approximation of your hand. Certainly with either card being a spade this is an easy call.

What no one has mentioned so far is that this board is the type of board that overcards like best. It is semi coordinated. Yes, you could be reverse dominated, you could also even be drawing mostly dead to a set or two pair, but the pot is big, and there are loose callers padding the action.

If you improve to the best hand, you will win several big bets on the expensive street. Likewise if a card comes (like the king of spades) to ruin your hand on the turn it's easy to get away.

Bottom line, the pot is big, peel one off.

[CORed]

[ QUOTE ]
Your backdoor straight draw is a joke. You need the next two cards to be exactly 4-5, and if one of them (or, obviously, both) is a spade, you can lose anyway and even if not it is fairly likely that you will be chopping.

[/ QUOTE ]

The wheel, if you make it, loses not only to a flush if one of your runners is a spade, but to any 6. You have an idiot end one card three-gap backdoor straight draw. I think this is worth about 0.1 outs.