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  #11  
Old 02-24-2005, 09:22 PM
pokerjo22 pokerjo22 is offline
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Location: Bay Area
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Default Re: On a 180 BB downswing, is the following analysis correct?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that getting dealt AA,KK,or QQ less is what causes downswings greater than +150BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

They can contribute though - at 33,000 hands I figured I *should* have had them 150 times (hope my math is right). They were actually all at less than 130. Given they win an average of 2BB for me per hand, that's 120 BB I'm 'missing' right there.
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  #12  
Old 02-24-2005, 09:29 PM
emonrad87 emonrad87 is offline
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Default Re: On a 180 BB downswing, is the following analysis correct?

[ QUOTE ]
You could look at it as winning 1BB/100 over 20000 hands?

Or is that just unacceptable to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.


Also, to the OP: post hands you're having trouble with.
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  #13  
Old 02-24-2005, 09:44 PM
GrekeHaus GrekeHaus is offline
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Default Re: On a 180 BB downswing, is the following analysis correct?

[ QUOTE ]
I know that in all online communities the veteren and long time posters get tired of answering the same quesitons and "use the Search noob" is a pre-determined phrase on their keyboards..., and I think in many situations this reponse is sufficient or required. Specifically when the OP asks a generic "Help me find the answer to generic question XXX". However, in this case it is obvious that the OP has put some tought and work into analyzing his statistics and is looking for 3rd party insight to his thoughts. Reading between the lines a little tells any reader that it is obvious that the reader is not looking for long-term win rate judgement, but more comments on how he is analyzing his own data and ideas on other things he can do to improve his analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

You pretty much hit the nail on the head here. I'm not looking for an actual "what is my true winrate?" here. I've done the math before, and even being the relatively tight player that I am, with small standard deviation (13 BB/100), it would take me over 6 million hands to know my true winrate +- 0.1 BB/100.

What I was really looking for was an critique on my analysis that the % of hands won is likely a source of the recent downswing. More or less, is it reasonable to assume that I will generally win more times when I play this many hands?

Obviously, it takes a good number of hands to know your true winrate, but it takes a significantly smaller sample size to determine other things, such as standard deviation and (I believe) % of hands won.

Regarding some of the questions.

I have considered the fact that I've been playing with generally better players at this level, but I thought this would be somewhat covered by the fact that I've actually gone to showdown more over this stretch (and more in general) than I did at $3/6. My thoughts on this were that if people weren't paying me off with weaker hands, my WtSD numbers would be lower as would my Won $ at SD.

As for my big pairs, they've held up fairly well, although I haven't gotten them as much as usual

AA: 86% (1 out of 233 hands)
KK: 69% (1 out of 298 hands)
QQ: 63% (1 out of 288 hands)
JJ: 43% (1 out of 210 hands) <--I'm actually down slightly with JJ

My aggression factors are still on a par with what they normally are. The river is lower, usually it's around 1.6. This is probably due to less value betting since I'm against better players, the fact that I'm winning less often anyway, and possibly a little fear which has been put into my by the bad streak.

Flop: 3.11
Turn: 2.87
River: 1.25
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  #14  
Old 02-24-2005, 10:44 PM
LinusKS LinusKS is offline
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Default Re: On a 180 BB downswing, is the following analysis correct?

Greke, it looks like you've done some good analysis, probably better than what you could hope to get by posting here.

I don't have anything to add, except that your own analysis is probably right - you're just running bad.

I liked what you did with the percentage of hands won analysis - it shows what a big impact a small number of hands can have.
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  #15  
Old 02-24-2005, 11:24 PM
GrekeHaus GrekeHaus is offline
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Default Re: On a 180 BB downswing, is the following analysis correct?

Thanks Linus,

That's pretty much what I was looking for. Either someone (or multiple people) to confirm what seemed like a liklihood, or to point out anything I might have neglected to notice that could also be contributing.

Since I'm currently aiming to correct the problem, I thought I'd post here to see if anybody could see anything in my numbers that I had missed. Of course, if nobody sees anything, then it means that there probably is no problem, so I'll just continue on with what I've been doing and hope that things start to turn around soon.
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  #16  
Old 02-25-2005, 12:34 AM
The Yugoslavian The Yugoslavian is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Orange County
Posts: 130
Default Re: On a 180 BB downswing, is the following analysis correct?

From what I understand of ring play. Your sample size *is* too small to draw definite conclusions. However, that *does not* mean it is meaningless.

Also, no one has really addressed what can be expected as a win rate at 10/20. I don't really know but it seems 3BB/100 is most likely overly optimistic. At the same time I've seen some of your play and it's very solid. I doubt the bad run is due totally to tilt and I doubt the good run is due totally to skill.

All that being said. The ~+1BB/100 combined is nothign to sneeze at especially considering you sort of came straight from 3/6 (where your sample size is also too small for definite conclusions).

As for reasons for your stats. Variance is 99% of the explanation for them. If this is what you're calling 'bad luck' then so be it (although there really isn't anything such as bad or good luck).

My advice is that as long as you're not tilting or feeling that you're playing sub-optimally and can stomach swings in the 10/20 then continue to play them. If you don't think you can handle another 8,600 hands at -2BB/100 right now, then drop back down to the 3/6.

As far as plugging possible leaks -- go ahead and post hands that you felt were tricky. Also feel free to identify the most common situations where you *might* be making mistakes. Obviously those specific situations would be the 'leak' if you're not playing them very well.

If you need a support group then visit the following forum and post on it at least every day:

QLC

Yugoslav
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