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#11
11-02-2005, 01:43 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hand 2 correct flop is: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Even better. Check-raise away. [/ QUOTE ] yes. 
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#12
11-02-2005, 01:43 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
[ QUOTE ]
hand1: I check behind the river [/ QUOTE ] weaksauce. [ QUOTE ] hand2: what is the blind structure? not sure I like preflop .. flop looks good [/ QUOTE ] 2/5. pf might've been close, but I'm comfortable with it.
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#13
11-02-2005, 02:01 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
You're giving him too much credit on the turn in hand one, don't you think? Huge huge range you need to bet to protect against/value bet against.
I like the river bet given your play, but it's so far inferiorto juts firing on the turn, IMO.
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#14
11-02-2005, 02:09 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
Hand 1: I definitely bet the turn and check the river behind. I don't want to give a free card if I'm ahead, and if I'm c/r'd, I think I can fold safely against this guy.
Hand 2: Hmmm. He has that won't fold: AA 3 ways AK 9 ways AQ 12 ways AJ 12 ways He has that might fold and we want to fold: KK 3 ways QQ 6 ways JJ 6 ways TT 6 ways 99? - I'll call it 3 ways. His PFR isn't all that big. He has that will fold, but we don't want to fold: KQ 12 ways KJ? I'll call it 6 ways KTs 3 ways He has that will fold, and we want to fold: QJs - 4 ways 85 Total hands. This is a fairly tight range, but he's raising after limpers, and you imply with pseudo stats that he wasn't raising all that much. It looks to me like we're getting 3bet roughly 42% of the time, we're folding a hand drawing to 3 outs 25% of the time, we have a chance of folding a better hand 28% of the time (but it's not guaranteed), and we fold a hand that we're ahead of, but that we don't mind folding, 5% of the time. Fully two thirds of the time c/r'ing results in something we don't want to happen. Something truly happy happens less than a quarter of the time. And I'm neglecting the effects of the other players! I'd much rather peel one off both to draw at a 5 outer and to hope that a Q doesn't drop. Actually, I should have ATs (and maybe some points for ATo) in his range of hands, too, if I have KTs and QJs in there. I'm too lazy to fix my numbers, but this only makes things worse for you. I don't like that c/r one bit.
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#15
11-02-2005, 02:10 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
OK, I see three people saying that this is the best thing since sliced bread. You're going to have to help me out on this one. I'm clearly too stupid.
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#16
11-02-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I see three people saying that this is the best thing since sliced bread. You're going to have to help me out on this one. I'm clearly too stupid. [/ QUOTE ] You got me, I thought he was a 4 flush board and we had outs vs. his 3-betting range.
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#17
11-02-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I see three people saying that this is the best thing since sliced bread. You're going to have to help me out on this one. I'm clearly too stupid. [/ QUOTE ] your math is beginning to sway me on hand 2. And I seriously still can't see why we would bet the river in hand 1
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#18
11-02-2005, 02:17 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
In hand 1 I don't mind checking behind on the turn and calling 1 on the river against aggro-players. Against a loose-passive guy like this I think you have to bet that turn as you will often fold a loose flop peel and never have to worry about being bluff-checkraised.
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#19
11-02-2005, 02:18 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I see three people saying that this is the best thing since sliced bread. You're going to have to help me out on this one. I'm clearly too stupid. [/ QUOTE ] Give UTG QJ, and UTG+1 T9 (just an example), and you can see why we want to get them out of the pot.
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#20
11-02-2005, 03:03 AM
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Re: A couple of hands I played tonight
OK, here's an equity estimate at the flop:
[ QUOTE ] Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 3,505,062,120 games 990.297 secs 3,539,404 games/sec Board: Ad 7s 3c Dead: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 36.4076 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo } Hand 2: 20.9601 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { 88-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K8s, QTs-Q8s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K8o, QTo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o } Hand 3: 20.9601 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { 88-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K8s, QTs-Q8s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K8o, QTo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o } Hand 4: 21.6722 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { Kc7c } [/ QUOTE ] And if we're HU with the button: [ QUOTE ] Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 96,030 games 0.015 secs 6,402,000 games/sec Board: Ad 7s 3c Dead: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 61.3673 % [ 00.61 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo } Hand 2: 38.6327 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { Kc7c } [/ QUOTE ] Our equity increases 18% at the cost of 2 SB, which represents, well golly gee, 18% of what we expect the pot to be. Actually, wait. We're putting in 9% more than calling, so raising instead of calling has an EV of about 1 SB IF the other two guys fold AND that raise puts us all in. However, how often do those other guys fold, anyway? How much are we going to get punished if we're up against an A or better? Make that A into a Q and I love it. However, I'm not convinced.
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