AK on river, am i overthinking this one?

steaknshake925 · #1 06-17-2005, 12:59 AM

i was on kind of a rush on another table playing HU, so no reads on villain.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) converter

MP3 ($980)
CO ($192.5)
Button ($980)
SB ($677.3)
BB ($965)
UTG ($843)
Hero ($1394)
UTG+2 ($985)
MP1 (villain)/ ($1006.5)
MP2 ($360)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, UTG+2 calls $35, MP1 (villain)/ calls $35, 2 folds, CO calls $35, 3 folds.

Flop: ($155) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, villain checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($155) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $125, UTG+2 folds, villain calls $125, CO folds.

River: ($405) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, villain bets $200

comments on all streets appreciated. on the river, is this an easy call here? at the time i thought it seemed like a 2pair value betting the river. i figured lesser aces were all checking behind and cant really see what i can beat besides a bluff. thanks.

Raydain · #2 06-17-2005, 01:01 AM

Why didn't you bet the flop?

MTBlue · #3 06-17-2005, 01:17 AM

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Why didn't you bet the flop?

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It makes your whole line ugly. I assume it was a wiffed checkraise but giving a free card on this board is horrible. After playing like a pansy you are going to have to call the river, because anyone with any type of balls is going to try to take this pot away from you.

steaknshake925 · #4 06-17-2005, 01:20 AM

i dont know, just trying something different i guess. i cant really justify the flop check, i guess with 4 guys in i wanted to go slow and see what developed. also i wasnt sure what i would do if i got called in one or two spots if i bet the flop, id be OOP in a big pot with no idea what the others have. but yea, i think betting out would be better.

MTBlue · #5 06-17-2005, 01:28 AM

I understand the concern, but I think the easiest way to avoid a losing big pot (and I understand that this counter intuitive) is too fire a big bet on the flop and say that I mean business-- with a of diamonds in your hand the only draws that could raise you are kj, kt, jt of diamonds i.e only three possible card combination so if you get raised it's an easy fold without a donk read on the opponent. I also understand the want to vary your play but I think this flop is too ugly to consider it.

THATWACOKID · #6 06-17-2005, 02:12 AM

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After playing like a pansy you are going to have to call the river, because anyone with any type of balls is going to try to take this pot away from you.

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I don't think this would be a good call

creedofhubris · #7 06-17-2005, 03:53 AM

With 3 other guys in, you need to bet the flop.

The A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in your hand makes a check a little more tempting, but you've got two broadway cards on that board right now and a third would be real ugly.

Bet flop. Consider checking turn or river. But if you check, plan to call.

MTBlue · #8 06-17-2005, 04:03 AM

I think the call is necessary for a couple of reasons. The flop check signals to most players that the hero missed the flop and is unwilling to bluff through all of the callers. The broadway cards and the flush draw make checking unthinkable if the hero has any type of made hand that figures to be best at the moment. What does the hero check on the flop? Most likely something like jj or tt. Then everyone checks behind. Hero fires on the turn. Villain thinks he is trying to pickup the dead money with an underpair maybe as strong as kk. The villains figures he can take the pot on the end no matter what comes --although a scare card makes his job easier. Scare card comes he bets just enough to make it look like a value bet but little enough to give him good odds to pick up the pot i.e. 2:1. I think Hero is behind here maybe half the time but with 3:1 to call. He only needs to be good 25% of the time.

steaknshake925 · #9 06-17-2005, 08:55 AM

the problem with putting villain on a bluff is that its the only thing i can beat. i see my hand looks alot like KK/JJ, but if villain puts me on that range he's checking behind the river with any ace or queen-basically anything i can beat.
i havent played the party 5/10 much, but im not sure if we should give a random villain credit for the ability to call a near-potsized bet on one street with the intention of taking it away on the next. your line of thinking for villain is certainly possible, but i dont think its very common for most villains try something like that. it almost sounds like youre rationalizing yourself into calling by putting villain on the only range of hands you can beat. on the other hand, your point about 3:1 odds is very good so i am still torn.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the call is necessary for a couple of reasons. The flop check signals to most players that the hero missed the flop and is unwilling to bluff through all of the callers. The broadway cards and the flush draw make checking unthinkable if the hero has any type of made hand that figures to be best at the moment. What does the hero check on the flop? Most likely something like jj or tt. Then everyone checks behind. Hero fires on the turn. Villain thinks he is trying to pickup the dead money with an underpair maybe as strong as kk. The villains figures he can take the pot on the end no matter what comes --although a scare card makes his job easier. Scare card comes he bets just enough to make it look like a value bet but little enough to give him good odds to pick up the pot i.e. 2:1. I think Hero is behind here maybe half the time but with 3:1 to call. He only needs to be good 25% of the time.

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