AK button hand.

Standard flop and turn? UTG 29/17/1.8 from 60 hands. bb 51/5.9/2.2 from 100 hands.

party 5/10 6 players.

UTG opens, folded to me i raise with AdKc on the button, sb folds, bb calls, UTG caps. we both call.


flop Js, Th, 4c (12.5sb)

sb bets, UTG calls, I raise?, both call.

Turn Jd (9.5bb)

sb bets, UTG folds, i call.

River 9h (11.5bb)

bet, fold

[imported_leader]

Well if sb=bb then I don't raise the flop. This guy probably donks and 3-bets you way to much.

[jt1]

I think that's a fine flop raise. Turn call is iffy - you are only 1 sb over breakeven and the board is paired.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn call is iffy - you are only 1 sb over breakeven and the board is paired.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes his overcards are live, and most of the time he has at least 4 outs. Good enough for me.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes his overcards are live

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true. A pp will often donk this turn.

[ArturiusX]

The raise is good if they're passive, otherwise I dont really like it.

Why are we raising the flop? We are probably behind, can't protect our hand, and face the possibility of getting bet-3bet by an aggressive BB, all with a very weak hand.

I'm not sure how much of a maniac the BB is, but he is very unlikely to be donking a draw to a preflop capper and 3bettor. Also, given his stats he is almost certainly committing himself to showdown with this action, so we have almost no folding equity in the hand.

Possible merits include getting UTG to fold his obvious AKo or AQ on the turn, but for this to pay off it would require too great a parlay to even worth considering. As for the free card, I think its pretty unlikely, and might get very expensive in a hurry.

All these factors would lead me to just call on the flop. As played the turn call is fine as you have 4 outs to the gutshot, and your overcard outs are definitely worth something.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
The raise is good if they're passive, otherwise I dont really like it.


[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG bet it then there's no way that I'd raise it. I'm not sure but I'd probably call all the way down, depending on sb.

But that sb led the flop rather than check raised indicates to me that he's betting just to see where's he at. Hero's preflop 3 bet and flop raise should slow him down. Not to mention that hero can almost raise for value not even counting the free card.

Hero has two very tainted overcards, with likely another AK accounted for in UTG's hand, and a gutshot draw. If behind, hero has at best 6-7 outs, nowhere near enough to raise for value in a 3way pot. His equity is likely in the 20% range.

Also, getting 3bet is a catastrophe, especially when we had an opportunity to see the turn with our weak hand for just a single SB.

Also, players generally don't bet into a PF capper and 3bettor with weak holdings. The PF action should tell him exactly where he is at, increasing the chance that he has a monster made hand like JTs or JJ/TT.

[jt1]

MrHoobris,

I agree that Hero's overs are tainted. I also agree that SB would be wise to lead with a monster rather than check raise it. I can see SB having a monster or a pp or AJ or KJ. But you may be able to fold the pp or get a free card.

If Hero has 7 outs then he's roughly a 3-1 dog to win it by the river. There are 2 players in the game. I think catastrophe may be too strong a word.


edit: Ofcourse, if hero is 3 bet then Hero only has 4 outs and is odds decrease to slightly more than 4-1 and UTG may possibly fold. I can see your point a little bit better now.

Basically, by choosing to raise you are betting that sb will 3-bet or turn donk less than half the time.