Is it Possible I'm Ahead Here?

[Jeffage]

Ok, so I've been checkraised on the river like 10 times tonight. Is laying this down a possibility or do you have to pay this crap off every time in these online games?

50-100

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. One caller, MP raises, folded to me and I reraise. First limper calls, MP calls. Three to the flop of T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Check to MP who bets, I raise, limper calls two cold, MP calls. Turn is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Check to me, I bet, limper calls, MP folds. River is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Limper checks, I bet and he raises. Literally, am I ever winning this bullshit or can I just discard it?

Jeff

[flawless_victory]

its hard to put this guy on a hand... 9T i guess. i dont know if you win here enough, but youll win sometimes, adn youll get to see what this idiot played this way...
also it would look pretty bad to muck for one bet after all pounding. im a river laydown guy, but id kiss the chips and toss em in here.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
River is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Limper checks, I bet and he raises. Literally, am I ever winning this bullshit or can I just discard it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ya, your winning it often against maniacs, superdonks, and nutjobs that you will have identified within two orbits or less. Your losing it 97.4 % of the time to relatively normal, rational players. 3.6% of the time it will be a well calculated bluff checkraise by a decent to excellent player. Cheers.

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Limper checks, I bet and he raises. Literally, am I ever winning this bullshit or can I just discard it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ya, your winning it often against maniacs, superdonks, and nutjobs that you will have identified within two orbits or less. Your losing it 97.4 % of the time to relatively normal, rational players. 3.6% of the time it will be a well calculated bluff checkraise by a decent to excellent player. Cheers.

[/ QUOTE ]

So 1 % of the time you are losing to a bluff checkraise?

[elindauer]

Hi Jeffage,

Sadly, I think the answer goes something like this: if you never fold to this raise, you will rarely be ahead. If you always fold, you will often be ahead. Hmmm... so how about THIS time? Here are some things to consider:


What does he put you on? Can he think you are much weaker than you actually are? Do you think he believes you could hold AK? Have you played wildly recently? Did you grab a pot from him with a turn bluff raise only to luck into a river ace recently? That is, can he reasonably believe that you will fold to the raise?

What hand range can you put him on? Within that hand range, how likely is it that he holds a hand he would consider bluffing? Most players will not bluff raise with a mediocre made hand, thinking that if your hand was weak, they could call and snap off your bluff, but that if it's better than theirs, you won't fold to a raise. Of course, as Tommy demonstrates over and over again, and you may demonstrate by folding here, good players take advantage of this by folding surprisingly strong holdings... sometimes.

Is this player aggressive? Is he the type to make a bluff raise if the opportunity presented itself?


So, to sum up, you have to consider the odds of him getting to the river with this action and holding a hand he would bluff, compared to the odds he would arrive at this river with a made hand that beats you. Then you factor in his read of you, what range he puts you on and how often he can expect you to fold to get a feeling for how often he will in fact bluff with the part of his hand range that is bluff-worthy. Mix in a lot of experience (and math) and the answer presents itself.

In this hand, it looks like you have at least TPTK, and are really marked with aces or kings. Additionally, the odds of him holding a bluff-type hand are low. He called two cold on the flop on a very draw-free board. A2s A3s and 67s are about the only missed draws here, would he open limp those hands AND call 2 cold preflop? Probably not.

My best guess is that you are beaten and don't have the right odds to call. As soon as you start folding this though, the odds change, because their perception of you changes. One interesting aspect of high limit poker is that the players notice things like folds in big pots for 1 bet like this, and have the aggression and fearlessness to try to take advantage of it. Fold this one, but realize that future river calls have gotten more profitable because of it, perhaps swinging a future marginal fold to a call.

my 2 cents.
eric


By the way, I put his most likely hand as TT, slowplayed the whole way trying to keep the third player in. I've noticed that higher limit players are much more willing to wait for the river to raise than low and even mid stakes players.

[mscags]

I think you know you need to fold this one Jeff. That is not a good card for you and you know this is a raise like .5% of the time or something. Sometimes it feels like everyone is taking a "shot" at you, but it is really just variance kicking your ass. Save that BB for another day

[James282]

A long time ago, Diablo and I came to the agreement that after showing considerable strength on the flop and turn, the check-raise on the seemingly innocuous river card is almost always ahead of the pair you represent on the flop. Your situation is a little more precarious because you are representing a ten(to most people) and you actually made your hand on the turn, so there is an off-chance he is doing this he is doing this with a worse queen, but I think that is about it. This time, I am pretty sure it's a fold.
-James

I think you're probably ahead enough to call, but just barely and only because it's such a large pot that you don't have to be ahead very often.

You are behind the vast majority of the time, of course, as the limper is telling the PF reraiser (i.e., the aces or kings) that he has them beat. I'd call and hope he was talking to the jacks instead.

[bobbyi]

I don't see the point of raising this flop.

[Paluka]

I hate this flop raise as well.