pokerstars 100/200 JTs

[bicyclekick]

9 handed Poker stars 100/200.

I've sat a couple orbits and won the couple pots without showdown I was involved in. I raise emp with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and a 29/16/2.21 (most likely from shorthanded stats...so probably decent player) calls in the sb, bb folds. I don't know anything specific about him and dont have any history far as I remember.

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
villain donkbets, I raise, he calls.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
villain checks, hero?

This hand just fealt wierd. The flop donkbet threw me off. Sometimes I call there, because that's what I would do with aces most of the time, but I think a raise is in order...I dunno.

[PokerPrince]

I think you have a bet here.

PokerPrince

[shaundeeb]

I live a bet here, for many reasons.

1. If he c/r you can easily call and also have a strong enough hand to 3-bet if you fell he will laydown some weaker aces.

2. You bet the turn to get a free showdown if called and you don't improve.

3. Sets up a Laggier image for those times you do hole AK 88 or 99 here.

[Nate tha' Great]

Seems like a pretty straightforward value bet.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

do people lead these flops without aces? either way, raising the flop usually isn't a bad idea, and is often a very good idea.

as it is, i'd bet the turn unless this guy is particularily aggressive or tricky and would checkraise you here a lot or if he's a calling station type that would never fold an ace or other hands that you'd like to fold. but for the most part this seems like a straightfoward bet.

[tomahawk]

yeah looks like you should bet for value, and while the chance that he has an ace is there, you have a shitload of outs to improve your hand. betting into an ace, and even getting checkraised here isn't a total disaster. yet

[Danielih]

Raise and cap

[Joe Tall]

There is value in your bet and it's an easy follow through. Is there value in betting a blank on the river though, I doubt it.

[lil feller]

BK, you know I respect your play, but I HATE the flop raise.

I've never played 100-200, but I have a lot of experience in the 15-30 to 40-80 range, and I know that in these TAG sort of games a check or a call is much scarier then a raise. He's leading into you expecting you to raise, and his line looks like a classic S&G to c/r you on the turn, with a hand that cleary has you beat at this point with only one card to come.

I like a flop call here to make him fear your hand. If he leads again, raise any turn and see what he does. He might fold a small ace to that line, he won't to a flop raise/turn bet (he'll probably c/r you, and then call down even if you 3 bet, because he's made the pot so big).

Given that you raised the flop, and now have some showdown equity, I'd check the turn. Its heads up, if you're drawing you aren't getting value from your bet, and you're probably drawing. If not, he can't have many outs, and he'll gaybet very weak hands on the river (and by checking the turn you are of course committing yourself to showing down).

I also think its important that the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is not on board, and there is a chance, albeit slim, that he not only has you beat, but has your flush outs covered as well (although he probably would have 3 bet the flop w/ the nut flush draw and top pair, but still a possibility).

Am I crazy here?

lf

[Danielih]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I crazy here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

He should raise and cap the flop and turn if possible.