pokerstars 100/200 JTs

[rory]

I would be more likely to bet the turn again if the guy was the SB, not the BB. The hands that a solid player will call a raise from a solid player EMP with in the SB are much less varied than the hands he will call a raise with in the BB. Hands like AQ and AK he may have here, I dunno about AJs or ATs because I'm not a normal person and fold my blinds too much. I don't know if he would call with a hand like JQs or T9s or KQs and that sort of thing. He might call with 88 or 99. I think his most likely hands are KQs of spades, a set or a good ace, maybe a pair of 9s or Ts or something. So I think you should check behind on the turn and call a river bet.

If this player was the BB, I would be more inclined to bet the turn because there are a wider range of holdings he could have that you are ahead of and he has more outs with.

Disagreeing with Ray Zee makes me feel dirty, and I feel dirtier that I feel dirty for disagreeing with Ray Zee. I never listen to anyone, usually!

[J.A.Sucker]

You bet. You call down the raise. I don't think you're getting raised here too often, anyways, and if you are, I still don't think you're losing as often as you think.

[J.A.Sucker]

Sometimes you get beat, sometimes you don't. All the time, you should just bet it. These are tricky and closish hands, but you can't stop pulling the trigger, IMO.

[Renaud Desferet]

Worse hands don't usually fold the turn, I don't agree. Typical mid-high limit player is very tenacious on this kind of board and with this betting sequence.

[rory]

Oh yeah the other thing is that I dunno how many levels this guy thinks, but to me your flop raise would mean "I don't have an Ace". I donk bet all the time and that's usually what raises mean from a solid player. They figure they have position and can raise you on the turn anyway so why blow you off your hand on the flop. I don't play 100/200 though so maybe the players are better there.

So if I had a good ace or something and I was the SB, I would assume your flop raise was a raise on a draw or with some other lame hand and I would donkbet the turn too if I had an ace to prevent you from getting a free card. So that is a piece of evidence pointing towards him not having an ace, assuming he thinks like that. I guess this post is pretty content-free, but is just some other thoughts.

[fnord_too]

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Reason I asked is maybe those times we get check raised are offset by the times we hit the flush or the gutter. also protect my hand vs a smaller pair vs 2 pair.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a clear bet, and I don't care if I am check raised.

Against Ax of spades you have 9 outs.
Against a set (except aces, and I really don't see him having aces) you have 10 outs.
Against Aces up you have 13-14 outs.
Against everything else that is beating you you have 16-17 outs if I can count that high accurately.

Those are all the ways I see you getting check raised, and you probably have 12+ outs on average when c/r'd.

The only real question in my mind is will he fold a worse hand here but also call the river with that same worse (unimproved) hand? I think the number of hands that meet both those conditions is less than the number of worse hands that call here, and there is a slight chance a hand that would fold may improve to beat you on the river. The better hands that call here are probably going to lead the river if you check but check if you bet here, so unless you are comfortable checking the turn and folding to a river bet unimproved, I don't think checking behind here is good at all.

Edited because I'm blind.

[fsuplayer]

BK has the J of spades.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
BK has the J of spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a Jenius with a capital J!

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
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why does everyone want a free showdown. what has he done to make you believe that jacks arent the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that jacks are often the best hand here which is why I believe BK should check because a lot of the worse hands are folding to his bet and a lot of the better hands are check raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

We think so alike.

Reason I asked is maybe those times we get check raised are offset by the times we hit the flush or the gutter. also protect my hand vs a smaller pair vs 2 pair.

I don't know though, and I think calling on the flop would have been a better play looking back...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that the flop raise likely isn't an especially credible represntation of a pair of A's in this guy's mind is exactly why you need to bet the turn for value.

[blumpkin22]

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I don't see why you wouldn't raise the flop. You have a monster hand, and your raise is for value. You can get a free card on the turn if you choose, or fire if you hit or mix up your play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain has an ace, the raise is not for value (hero is slightly less than 50-50 to win the hand in that case). Perhaps if you consider the entire range of hands the villain has, the raise could be for value.