set of aces, 4 straight on board.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to be rude, and I appreciate everyones advice, but many of you are not answering my question.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are trying to explain that the reason you are in such a difficult spot on the river is because you made a mistake on the flop.

On the river:

The pot has 5400 in it, and you have to call 600. You are getting 9:1. Harrington's rule says that your opponent is bluffing at least 10% of the time. Who knows, maybe he has AT/QT/JT. Call.

You can also run ICM on this and plug in the probabilities associated with having the best hand, but you've only given 13800 chips and PokerRoom SnGs have 15000 so you must've made a mistake somewhere.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

you should not try and extract w/ a scary board take your money on the flop and be happy that you're ahead. As far as folding the river, you should. He called your large bets, and now he is leading the betting w/ an amount he thinks you will call. He made his hand, save some money and fold... you missed your opportunity.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]

You can also run ICM on this and plug in the probabilities associated with having the best hand, but you've only given 13800 chips and PokerRoom SnGs have 15000 so you must've made a mistake somewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about that. I post from work, and don't have access to the HH, or I would just post that. Anyway, I know I had 3900 and change, and the short stack had about 2,500. SB had a little more than me.

I don't remember what the other guy had. I gave him 3,500 because I thought would make it all add up to 15,000 (+ or - 200), but I screwed up the math.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

I considered that, but then I thought, "There are only 8 cards in the deck that scare me (4 tens and 4 kings). The odds are that one won't come, and even if one comes, there's a good chance it won't help him, and even if it helps him, I have a strong redraw." So trying to milk him seemed like a good idea at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that reasoning I assume you don't protect your hands against flush draws either? Afterall, there are only nine cards that can hurt you.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
you should not try and extract w/ a scary board take your money on the flop and be happy that you're ahead. As far as folding the river, you should. He called your large bets, and now he is leading the betting w/ an amount he thinks you will call. He made his hand, save some money and fold... you missed your opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The bet is 600 and you're getting almost 10:1, and opponent could still have QQ, JJ, AQ, maybe QJs or JTs... OP shouldn't be in this spot, but since he is, hero calls...

[durron597]

Alright using stacks of:

SB - 4200
You - 3900
Short - 2600
Other guy - 4300

Then if you fold your equity is: 13.8%
If you call and win: 36%
If you call and lose: 9.3%

If the probability of winning is x, then $EV(call) =
36 * x + 9.3 * (1 - x) = 26.7 * x + 9.3, which needs to be bigger than 13.8%

Thus x > 16.85%.... which means you need to have the best time approx 1/6 or better times in order to call. This isn't fully accounted for by Harrington's bluff rule, but I think it's accounted for by the the times the ten on the turn gave him two pair or he has QQ/JJ. I call.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The bet is 600 and you're getting almost 10:1, and opponent could still have QQ, JJ, AQ, maybe QJs or JTs... OP shouldn't be in this spot, but since he is, hero calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose for $600 more he should call, but in my observation when a player calls big bets then a card comes and he starts betting he almost always made his hand.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to be rude, and I appreciate everyones advice, but many of you are not answering my question. I did not ask if I should have pushed the flop, I asked if I should call the river. It's not just this post either. Often, when I read threds that other people have started, I notcie that those who reply do not answer the question that was asked.

I don't mind your saying that I should have pushed the flop, but please try to answer the original question es well (e.g. "You should have pushed the flop, but since you didn't, you should...").

Thanks, and I apolgize if I offended anyone.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are looking for a cure to the disease, and shunning the vaccination.
a little bit of prevention goes a long way.

[Sean D]

Looks like it may be a blocking bet by two pair, lower set. I think you are definitely good more than 1/6th of the time. Barring a great read on the player, I make a crying call.

[chopchoi]

The more I think about this, the more convinced I become that I was right not to push.

If he has KT, I'm going to pay him off one way or the other, so thais doesn't matter. What we need to establish is, how often will I be ahead on the flop, but lose the hand on the turn?

The only cards I fear are the 4 K's and the 4 T's. The odds are about 5:1 that one of these cards won't come. Now, if one does come, I only lose if he makes a straight. So, If a T comes, he needs to have a K, and if a K comes, he must have a T. Of all the hands he raised me with PF, how many would have either a K or a T? Half seems like a reasonable estimat. so we'll say he has a K 25% of the time, and a T 25% of the time. So, a scare card comes one time in 5, and it makes him a straight 1 time in 4. So, he will only take the lead on the turn 1 time in 20, and even then, I hvae a ten out re-draw. I lose here only about 4% of the time. Anyone who says I need to protect my hand is too paranoid.