10 25 nl

[BeeKay]

My stack is 2000, oppenent has me covered.
I am dealt AsKd and its folded to me on Button. I make it the pot 85 to go, Small blind calls.
Flop 5d 9h Ks, he checks i bet the pot 195, he calls.
Turn 7c he checks i bet 350, he min raises to 700. I call. RIver Jd He Puts me all in for 1058 I call.
Results to come. Comments on all streets esp Turn and River. What does it look like he has?

[daryn]

you lose.

it looks like he has a hand like 99 for the flopped set.

[BeeKay]

He showed 86h for the turned gutshot and draged the 4k pot.

[daryn]

anyway i think his turn bet was really a sign of strength and i probably would have folded fearing a set. then again i don't play 10/25 nl


by the way... it's close, but if he knew you were the type of guy who gets so tied to his hand he can't let it go, then his flop call is almost correct!

[Jason Strasser]

Let me give this a shot.

Preflop looks fine. Flop looks good, except I'd be a little scared about a smooth call.

The turn is where you develop issues. I think you should bet this turn, although against a very aggressive player who will take this as weakness, I often like to check/call the turn and then figure out the river. In this spot, I think you must bet.

When he min raises, I am finished with this hand. Unless I had absolutely no respect for my opponent, I am done. I have TPTK, and while I hate hearing that you can't ever get involved with a hand like this in a big pot (different situations call for different measures), this is not a great spot for TPTK.

The line your opponent took is of the ultimate trickiness. Do you expect him to do this with a hand you are ahead of? I'd put him on at least a 2-pair. You have to wonder that if you call the min raise, are you drawing live?

And while you have decent odds to call the $350, also realize that it takes you one big step closer to being pot committed. This is where you decide if you want to back up your hand with you stack, where you define your hand. Don't expect a cheap river.

I really think this fold on the turn is extremely routine, especially against any type of solid player.

-Jason

[turnipmonster]

good analysis, jason. I think that anytime a competent player is giving you odds, you have to ask why exactly they are giving you odds.

--turnipmonster

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
And while you have decent odds to call the $350, also realize that it takes you one big step closer to being pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear this a lot, and I might be flat wrong here, but how is this a reason to fold? If you are pot committed on the river, that means you now have a play more profitable than folding, correct?

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And while you have decent odds to call the $350, also realize that it takes you one big step closer to being pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear this a lot, and I might be flat wrong here, but how is this a reason to fold? If you are pot committed on the river, that means you now have a play more profitable than folding, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

on the river, yea you have a more profitable play than folding. but you may have a better turn/river combination play then calling the turn and not folding the river. like once you are committed, you really hate to fold, but the best play may be to not get committed in the first place with a turn call

[AJo Go All In]

well say you have a 26% chance of having the best hand with no chance for improvement.

so say there is 300 in the pot after the flop. the turn comes and you bet 225. now he raises you to 450. so now you are getting 4.33-1 on your call. so you call.
now there is 1200 in the pot, and he bets his last 600 on the river. so now you are getting 3-1 and you call.

so what we have now is a situation where you effectively have put 825 into a pot of 1575 after your turn bet (225+600, 300+450+225+600). in other words, if opponent had reraised all-in on the turn rather than min-raising, we would be facing a bet of 825 into a pot of 1575, which is about 1.9-1 and not even close to the odds we need to call. so we can get away from it.

so, if we fold the turn we lose that turn bet 100% of the time. so -225.
if we call the turn and call the river, 26% of the time, we win the 300 from the pot, his 450 on the turn and 600 on the river. 74% of the time, we will lose 450 on the turn and 600 on the river. .26*1350 + .74*(-1050) = -426.

so we lose more by calling the turn and calling the river. we should fold the turn.

similar story when we are calling on the flop with a flush draw. we can't use the odds that it will be completed by the river, because we will face another bet on the turn if we miss. effective odds.

some of this math might be off, kinda rushed through this, but you get the idea.

[Ulysses]

The only exception to what people have said in this thread is vs. a specific kind of opponent. This opponent will take shots on the turn but will give up on the river. Against that opponent, you can call the turn and then fold on the river if he fires again. Against anyone else I check or bet/fold the turn.