Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis

[mason55]

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exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

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Both hole cards play, but there's no other qualifying hand -- no straight flush possibilities, that is.

Far as I can tell, 85o can't win it, but 86o could.

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88844
85 vs 44

All hole cards play

[Tapin]

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88844
85 vs 44

All hole cards play

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We're talking about Party's jackpot, no? Qualifier is quad 8s beaten.

[edfurlong]

[ QUOTE ]
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exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both hole cards play, but there's no other qualifying hand -- no straight flush possibilities, that is.

Far as I can tell, 85o can't win it, but 86o could.

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88844
85 vs 44

All hole cards play

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But no jackpot.

[Jeremy517]

I wonder what happens more than one person loses with a qualifying hand? Theoretically, with a board of QQJJT, you could have a royal, a straight flush, and two quads.

[AngusThermopyle]

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[ QUOTE ]
exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both hole cards play, but there's no other qualifying hand -- no straight flush possibilities, that is.

Far as I can tell, 85o can't win it, but 86o could.

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85o with board of 88854 vs 76s

[Sponger15SB]

This thread makes my head hurt.

[AngusThermopyle]

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I wonder what happens more than one person loses with a qualifying hand? Theoretically, with a board of QQJJT, you could have a royal, a straight flush, and two quads.

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If there are two or more hands that qualify for the jackpot within one hand #, then the two highest hands will be considered for the jackpot, with the highest hand being the winning hand (the winner) and the second highest hand winning the bad beat (the loser of the hand).

[Tapin]

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85o with board of 88854 vs 76s

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I actually discussed a similar hand with Party support a long time ago -- I was asking about an ace kicker to quads with an ace on the board -- and they told me that the ace on the board always plays (that is, if they can keep you from hitting the jackpot at all, they will).

Of course, this is Party support we're talking about, so I wouldn't be surprised if three more emails to them somehow propose three other interpretations of their jackpot rules.

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If the BBJ hit frequency is indeed once per 400K hands, that would mean the BBJ would be hit every ~$120-140K on average, since each raked hand contributes 0.50 to the BBJ, and assuming 60-70% of hands raked. So the current BBJ will probably be hit before it gets to $800K.

Anyone else made an estimate of the BBJ frequency?


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Your numbers jibe with mine. . . I did a statistical estimate dervied from pulling the numbers on the Bad Beat Winners page for several months. . . I concluded that it was very likely that the "equity value" for the jackpot was between $100,000 and $120,000, when including the chance of simply being dealt in at the table.

IOW, when the pot is around $110,000, the value of the jackpot opportunity is around $.05 per raked hand, which happens to be the cost of the jackpot rake.

I don't recall what numbers I came up with for the actual jackpot frequency. . . The only number I remember is the $100k-$120k range for parity, which is, frankly, all I really need to know.

[OrcaDK]

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I wonder what happens more than one person loses with a qualifying hand? Theoretically, with a board of QQJJT, you could have a royal, a straight flush, and two quads.

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If there are two or more hands that qualify for the jackpot within one hand #, then the two highest hands will be considered for the jackpot, with the highest hand being the winning hand (the winner) and the second highest hand winning the bad beat (the loser of the hand).

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I would seriously consider killing myself if i got caught with the 3rd best BBJ hand in this scenario.