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#1
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Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
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OK I think that analysis sucks. This is what makes value betting correct: So say you are ahead 60% of the time that you bet and he calls. Say he is folding 20% of the time and has the flush or J (or some other wierd monster) 20% of the time. You are winning one bet 60 times and lossing two bets 20 times for a net gain of 20 bets. If you check and he bets with a J or flush you are losing 40 bets if he only bets these hands. I dont think he will be betting a worse hand than yours more than 60% which is what you need in order to make a check call correct. Sorry for being so long winded all I'm saying is VALUE BET. I don't know the exact numbers but they are close I'm sure. Value betting is the bread and butter of 2/4 against these idiots. [/ QUOTE ] no big deal. i clarified in my original i thought "well played". i just offer other thoughts to consider even if they are wrong. okay the question is then : if he won't BET with a worse hand, will a RAISE with a worse hand? |
#2
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Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
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if he won't BET with a worse hand, will a RAISE with a worse hand? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, sometimes he will have two worse pair than yours, and every once in a while, he will be betting on a complete bluff. I know this doesn't look like a good board to bluff into, but it happens anyway. |
#3
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Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
I'm gonna be the minority here. I would bet/fold the river. I raise almost always means a flush, or a really slowplayed jack. I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. The pot is small, and I don't think you are picking off a complete bluff enough to make the call.
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#4
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Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
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I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. [/ QUOTE ] It's not that the 3 improved an A3. It's that A3 is chopping with all the other A's except AK and AJ. It is not unreasonable for a semi-donk to raise A3 here. In fact, there wouldn't have to be a very big chance for my opponent to fold another Ax (especially AK) for me to raise this board with A3 (and by "me" I mean the prototypical semi-donk). |
#5
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Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
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I'm gonna be the minority here. I would bet/fold the river. I raise almost always means a flush, or a really slowplayed jack. I don't think its worth throwing in an extra bet to find out if the guy is stupid enough to think the 3 improved his A3. The pot is small, and I don't think you are picking off a complete bluff enough to make the call. [/ QUOTE ] I agree - bet/fold > check/call > bet/call. |
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