I just did something really dumb

[Al Schoonmaker]

Warren,

I definitely did not mean that YOU make those basic mistakes, but most of the mistakes we make are NOT caused by lack of knowledge. We know better, but don't play as well as we know how to play.

The reasons for bad play vary from person to person. My weakness is poor concentration. If I am card dead (or have just played too long), my mind wanders, causing me to make some very silly mistakes.

Your desire to test yourself against tough competition is very negative EV, at least for the short term. You don't seem to have a more common problem: overestimating your own skills. You very directly admitted that these opponents were smarter than you are.

Yet you played, and I believe you did so because the kick of competing against tougher players outweighed -- at least temporarily -- your desire to make money.

However, if you never test yourself, you never learn how good you are, nor can you develop your game. I therefore would not worry too much about it. If you occasionally take a significant loss, but learn from it, the harm is within tolerable limits.

However, if you can't handle that loss and feel obliged to continue to play after losing too much, then you really have a problem.

You might regard the money you lose playing in tough games as "tuition" or "R&D." It's an investment that may well pay off in the future.

I know from our conversations and correspondence that you take extremely detailed records. You might want to add something to those records. For each session you might want to evaluate the relative skills of the opponents and yourself. Then compute your win-rate for various combinations to learn exactly how well you do against various levels of competition.

Regards,

Al

[Warren Whitmore]

Dr. You have done more for my win rate than anyone else. Indeed you would be my first choice for a live tutor/patient if we lived in the same area. I don't say this because I feel that stratagy is unimportant, its just that the stratagy I understand.

Indeed "Most of the mistakes we make are not caused by lack of knowledge." 80% of the people who took this survey agree with you on that. That is going to cause me to shift my poker study time from one third each logic, statistics, and psychology to 50% psychology, 25% statistics, and 25% logic. I just ordered your books "a students survival manual, and Executive career strategy". I did not at first see the relavence of material like that however have learned about anxiety from your book "Anxiety and the executive" I have changed my mind.

Now I must disagree with you on something. "If you never test yourself, you never know how good you are, nor can you develop your game."

That with the help of a computer and your matrix is very easy to find out. My abilities are Y=0.3415X(squared)-7.4814X+68.792. Where Y=The percentage of hands seen in the river where played by the parameter "Stone killer" and X = The big bets earned per hour in a limit game including (Omaha hi low split, 7 stud high low split, 7 card stud, and Texas Holdem).

I have gotten enough data above 68.792% through tourneyment play where I am frequently forced to play against better players to be able to interpolat data rather than depending on extrapolation. I appreciate your offering an out but it would be pure denial for me to take it.

This may sound a bit shortsighted, but how can you misapply information if you don't have any to begin with?

[kiddj]

[ QUOTE ]
This may sound a bit shortsighted, but how can you misapply information if you don't have any to begin with?

[/ QUOTE ]
If an opponent bets into you, and you have no info on him, you make your decision based on the cards, odds, or whatever. This doesn't sound too terrible, right?

But, if you have a read on him that he NEVER bluffs, but you call/raise him anyway (with nothing), is this not MUCH worse?

At best, the 2 can only be equal. If you draw incorrectly without knowing the odds, you're making an equal mistake to the person who knows the odds and draws anyway.