Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2

I really appreciate the responses, they have definately got me thinking in a few directions.

I’ve definitely got a mixed response on this hand that makes me wonder who is right. I’ve gotten fold the flop or raise the flop I’ve gotten raise the turn, I’ve gotten I played it right, I’ve gotten a very strong you can’t fold the turn.

So, I’ve gotten nowhere, someone please tell me who’s right. Lol, that won’t work anyway as I don’t know who to believe. Maybe after I spend more time reading this forum I’ll get a feel for who the heavy weights are.

Let me try to analyze the turn although I’m so new to O8 that I’m not sure of my judgment on hand strength. Hopefully then you all can pick away at my assumptions which should be educational to me.

The turn card was a blank yet the SB bets into 4 players including the flop better. I really have to discount my Q high flush here, I’m guessing I’m only better than the SB for high 25% of the time and better than the Button for high 33% of the time.

I’ve got 4 outs to the nut low, which may result in a split let’s just guess 10% of the time. I’ve got 12 outs to the 2nd nut low, let’s say that’s a split 10% and when it doesn’t split I win 66% of the time vs. the SB and 66% of the time vs. the button.

I’m assuming on average it will cost 2 BB to see the river and the amount for me to win if I scoop is 9BB.

Catch the nut low and win low = 4/44 * 90% = 8.2% * 4.5 = .37 BB
Catch the nut low and tie low = 4/44 * 10% = 0.9% * 2.25 = .02
Catch the 2nd nut low and win low = 12/44 * 90% *66% * 66% = 11% * 4.5 = .48
Catch the 2nd nut low and tie low = 12/44 * 10% = 3% * 2.25 = .06

Make the low and win high = 12/44 * 25% * 33% = 2% * 4.5 = .10
Miss the low but win high = 32/44 * 25% * 33% = 6% * 4.5 = .27

Lose both high and low 1 – (8.2% + 0.9% + 11% + 3% +2% +6%) = 69% * -2 = -1.38

Total (big caveat: if my assumptions and math are correct) = - 0.08 BB

I’ve done this type of work up for Hold’em, wow, it’s much more complicated for a split pot game.

[donger]

I hate this fold, too. I think the SB's lead bet frequently means a low-draw with a turned pair, two pair, etc. He now likes his equity enough (since only a late position player bet the flop and nobody raised) to try betting back through the field.

In your shoes, I would start jamming with this hand. You might fold out the 2nd nut flush or other 2nd nut low draws.

Yeah, you might get carved up sometimes with a two-way non-nut hand like this, but [censored] happens. Folding is even worse.

[jb9]

I'm certainly not the most experienced or successful player on this forum, but I'm surprised there has been such strong support for throwing money in the pot with this hand. It may be borderline, but I think it is on the bad side of the border.

I think the only times it can be profitable to play a hand like this on the turn are when you are short handed or your opponents are complete idiots (which sometimes they are, but such a read wasn't mentioned by OP).

So, if you've found an O/8 game where people are betting J high flushes and A5 low draws while at the same time they fold K high flushes and nut low draws, then call or raise the turn and add everyone at the table to your buddy list.

Otherwise, I still think it is a fold.

[grandgnu]

You have a decent two-way hand. Yes, usually you don't want to be sticking around with non-nut hands. But I agree with many of the others.

You're going to run into A LOT of players who look at Omaha hi/lo as if it's hold 'em. And they'll play accordingly (i.e. they hold top pair, top kicker and will go all the way with it, they just don't have a clue)

I would certainly get out of the way in Pot Limit Omaha hi/lo. But in limit, I'd likely stick around. It also depends on what info I have on the other players. If I've been watching them play and showing down UTG limped hands like K/6/9/3 suited to the 6, well, I'm not giving them credit for squat. This is where Poker Tracker comes in handy as well, you can see statistically, if those specific opponents are playing way too many hands and being overly agressive.

[Buzz]

fep - I don't think you should fold the queen high flush plus the second nut low draw in a limit game. Not on the flop and not on the turn. I think you have to stand your ground.

One might make a case for not <font color="white">_</font>drawing for the queen high flush plus second nut low but once you already have it, I think you hang in there.

The question is whether to <font color="white">_</font>raise or not. (I think you probably do better, on the average, by not raising here).

Buzz

Preflop- I think this is a great spot to raise with your A4QT, but a call is fine here. My raise/call ratio usually would be 70/30 in this type of spot.
Flop- You have the 3rd nuts for high, and the 2nd nut low draw for low. Not a terrific hand, but in the .50/1.00 O8 games this is a solid hand, certainly worth of calling a lone bet.
Turn- One player is gone, the pot is now 3-handed when you make your first decision. I think this is a great spot to raise. It is very hard for a lone player to have you scooped if a low card comes. I think your hand warrants a sort of "semi-bluff" here.

[benwood]

Pre-flop:The call is correct.I would not consider a raise unless the A were suited,&amp; even then the raise would be marginal.
Flop:After 4 players have checked &amp; 1 remaining,a bet is better than a check.You could easily have the best high hand.If someone else had a higher flush,he would have bet it to make the low draws &amp; trip/2pr hands pay to play.You should bet your 3rd nut flush/2nd nut low draw for the same reason.Underplaying your hand at this point will subject you to a guessing game on the turn.
Turn:Now you must guess since you can't tell "where you're at" because of your flop underplay.Is SB betting because he has the nut flush(unlikely) or because he thinks his set/top 2 pair is good because of the weakness shown on the turn.If button was betting a low draw,SB does'nt want to give him a free card.Since you have played it this way so far,the turn raise seems to be a good idea.Your hand is too good to fold.You get more EV from a raise than a call derived from value/thin field/free showdown.(What do you think,Buzz?)
Good luck to you. Ben

Thanks for the comments all. Lots of food for thought. In spite of my math contorsions, my opinion has changed to I shouldn't have folded this hand.

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Thanks for the comments all. Lots of food for thought. In spite of my math contorsions, my opinion has changed to I shouldn't have folded this hand.

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Nice to see someone who isnt always stubborn in his view point. By the way, dont be afraid to post more LO8 hands, this board is becoming too saturated with PL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Buzz]

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Flop:After 4 players have checked &amp; 1 remaining,a bet is better than a check.You could easily have the best high hand.If someone else had a higher flush,he would have bet it to make the low draws &amp; trip/2pr hands pay to play.You should bet your 3rd nut flush/2nd nut low draw for the same reason.Underplaying your hand at this point will subject you to a guessing game on the turn.

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Ben - I completely agree.

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Turn: ..... Your hand is too good to fold.....

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Absolutely!

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Now you must guess .....

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Yes.

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..... the turn raise seems to be a good idea. You get more EV from a raise than a call derived from value/thin field/free showdown. (What do you think,Buzz?)

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Whether to call or raise seems close to me. Hero's timing is off because (as you pointed out) of the missed bet on the flop.

Buzz