Flop vs Big Lag, holding big draw

MS Sunshine · #1 10-05-2005, 03:58 AM

Party $2K NLH ring game.

2 folds
Big Lag(51-7)($3300) makes it $55
a fold
I($1700) make it $150 AKs
everyone folds and the Big Lag calls

Flop

$330) 9s,10h,Jh

I have the AK of hearts

Big Lag checks, I bet $375 and he makes min. check raise to $750.

OK, I have about 25% of my stack in and he wants another 25% to see the turn card. My options are call and if I miss completely on the turn face an allin bet of $800 with a $1800 pot. With about 11-12 clean wins and 5-6 unlikely wins. This is not a pretty picture for me.

Option two: Push

Option three: Fold, I dislike doing this against Big Lags, but it does feel like the deer has a gun this time.

I really wish that I had 1/2 pot bet the flop when he checked.

MS Sunshine

flawless_victory · #2 10-05-2005, 04:14 AM

this guy raises PF 7% and he is big lag?
more like big loose passive fish.
your overbet here is really really bad... shouldve just moved allin or gone for the checkraise... a weak lead for 100 would also be good... then you have plenty of room to push if he raises a reasonable amount...
so you forced yourself into an ugly spot here (dont worry i posted similar hand where i had bet 1/2 but it was still too much), go ahead and push. eff it. no way im folding this hand.

BobboFitos · #3 10-05-2005, 04:15 AM

this is never a fold, it's not pretty when you have low fold equity, but the fact is you have enough equity vs even the nuts (and sets) made up by dead money to continue playing on.

Since he might be able to get away from a Q w/ 99 or a heart with KQ etc etc its better to put it in now. Esp. because he so rarely will have air here to let him put you in on a blank turn (and call)

Also, a push here does squeeze a tiny bit of fold equity, which is nice. The numbers, as well, in case you need to know... (although playing party 2k, they should be ingrained in your head)

to play on you need to put in basically 1175 to win a pot of roughly 3430. So you're putting in 34% of the pot.

Two worst case scenarios:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1261005
pokenum -h ah kh - js jc -- 9s th jh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 335 33.84 646 65.25 9 0.91 0.343
Js Jc 646 65.25 335 33.84 9 0.91 0.657

or

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1261006
pokenum -h ah kh - ks qh -- 9s th jh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 419 42.32 562 56.77 9 0.91 0.428
Ks Qh 562 56.77 419 42.32 9 0.91 0.572

So needless to say, never fold this, but shove it in.

MS Sunshine · #4 10-05-2005, 04:22 AM

I tried to edit my post, but I was late, to take out the fold option. In the hand, I pushed, he had KQo.

MS Sunshine

flawless_victory · #5 10-05-2005, 04:26 AM

oops...
just reread post and i thought you were in the blind for some reason?
i like checking the flop... if you dont want to check, i like betting all in.

BobboFitos · #6 10-05-2005, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I tried to edit my post, but I was late, to take out the fold option. In the hand, I pushed, he had KQo.

MS Sunshine

[/ QUOTE ]

c'est la vie

MS Sunshine · #7 10-05-2005, 04:31 AM

He was upfront and checked the flop. I really don't think I couldn't bet the flop. If I had it to do over I would bet 1/2 pot on flop. Assuming he still check raises then a flop call for one card is more interesting.

MS Sunshine

cero_z · #8 10-05-2005, 06:34 AM

Hi MS,

[ QUOTE ]
He was upfront and checked the flop. I really don't think I couldn't bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa! Are you kidding? This is a very definite check. It's a check in general, and against a LAG it's unquestionably a check.

Your thinking in this hand smacks of a limit mentality; my understanding is that you're a top limit player. Let me inject some NL perspective.

You shouldn't be looking to take this one down without a fight; that flop has hit soooooo many hands, and he's gonna play back at you. Check it behind him, and give yourself a great chance at the nuts. Otherwise, you're just going to end up playing for your whole stack as a small favorite or a small dog, when you could've often gotten your whole stack in there when he was drawing dead. If you want to try to bluff him out, you can still make a big move on the turn, if he bets the right amount; that move (check-behind/raise turn all-in) has credibility.

mgsimpleton · #9 10-05-2005, 06:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very definite check. It's a check in general, and against a LAG it's unquestionably a check... that flop has hit soooooo many hands, and he's gonna play back at you. Check it behind him, and give yourself a great chance at the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

couldn´t agree more. great advice given the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to try to bluff him out, you can still make a big move on the turn, if he bets the right amount; that move (check-behind/raise turn all-in) has credibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

couldn´t agree less, given the flop.

greg nice · #10 10-05-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Whoa! Are you kidding? This is a very definite check. It's a check in general, and against a LAG it's unquestionably a check.

[/ QUOTE ]

not saying i dont like a check, cause i do check behind a lot of times after raising preflop. my question is, how to you handle a blank turn when he bets into you?