Foxwoods $2000 NLHE Final Table Hand

[Gramps]

The difference between 3rd and 4th place is $17,000. If he calls and loses, he still has the short stack outchipped (and will still have him outchipped if he pays his blinds/antes and folds the next two hands). So, he's risking less than $8,500 for a great shot (read 50% or better) of not only the $17,000 for 3rd at worst, but virtually locking up the extra $35,000 for 2nd at worst (much better than his 50% shot or so that he has if he folds) - and giving himself a greater shot at 1st as well and the huge prize bump involved there.

Just because an action carries risk, doesn't mean that risk outweighs the reward. When you add up the risks and rewards here, given the information provided, it's clearly worth taking the risk here if your goal is $EV maximization.

[22suited]

The way I see it, 2nd and 3rd are doing the battling, 4th is locked for the short stack. He is deciding whether he wants to battle with the maniac before or after the short stack secures at least 3rd.

I'd say risking the 17k loss IF the guy has a coinflip is worth it. If he wins the coinflip he's locking in another 35k for 2nd.

You can't put him on AA or KK, and from the sound of it you could definately put him on AQ KQ AJ and maybe KJ. Other than that I say flip the coin. If you lose the 50/50 you still have a good shot of taking out the short stack.

[sahaguje]

Instant fold, and I dont think it close. AK is a "drawing hand", as a poster said, why gamble with a drawing hand ?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, I dont understand at all the logic behind the limp-fold, while you have a read on SB that makes you expect he will raise. How could a good player raise 3BB on SB (so out of position if called), when there is one limper and he has a 10- BB stack ???? That is just totally stupid. Any raise from SB will be an all in raise. If he fears UTG limp, he would just complete the blind.
Maybe there is a good high-level reason, but I dont see it, and I am not convinced at all by what has been said. Now if the vilain had a 20 BB stack, maybe hero's plan is good. But less than 10 BB ??? come on...

sahaguje

[schwza]

AK is not neccessarily a drawing hand. against AQ, or KT, or 98 or whatever this "very aggressive" player is raising with, it's a can-o-whoop-ass-opening hand.

if the numbers were slightly different so that hero would not have a chip lead post-blinds on the short stack, it'd be a tougher choice, but i'd still call. here, there's no way i fold, unless the opponents are way too tight and are letting me steal everything. but that's obviously not the case.

to those people saying that a fold is correct, can you agree that the entire line hero took it was a disaster? if hero is planning on folding to a SB push, he's got to raise himself.

to me, this is an easy call. what would have been more interesting is if the big stack had made a big raise.

[TheJackal]

I don't understand this situation whatsoever. He open limps because the guy is aggressive and plans to trap him with one of the best starting hands, gets raised like he wanted, and folds? If he was going to fold to a raise, why did he even call in the first place? I think he played it poorly in my view. If he was concerned about finishing 2nd, he should have raised and picked up the blind money. If he is called, he takes a flop and plays the hand out. If he is re-raised, his hand is a bit more defined and he could decide what to do from there. If it was me, I call here, esp if the villian is aggressive, I could be way ahead of him here.

[djoyce003]

I don't see how you don't call this. However, if hero is considering not calling this then his plan was foolish from the start. If he limps for 8k and lets say the villain makes a raise of 8 or 16k....he's going to call the all-in reraise most times just because the pot is going to be laying him the right odds to call, especially given the size of his stack. If hero is considering folding this, he should never have limped to begin with, it was just flushing money.

[freemont]

My chips beat his into the pot. If my idea was to trap, I would have to be assuming that I'd be playing for all his chips. Everyone that says AK is a drawing hand is right, IF you are up against a pair, nothing in the "this guy has been very aggressive" part tells me he HAS to have a pair. If you think about the range of hands you are up against it could be any Ax, KQ, KJ, KT, possibly lower Kx, all of which you're 3 to 1, QJ, possibly suited connectors, possibly a straight steal, etc... Since we can be fairly sure he'd play AA and KK a little slower maybe even QQ the WORST case scenario is a 46% dog, best is a hand you dominate. I'm too lazy to do all the math, and don't have one of those fancy programs yet, but I'd imagine against the range of hands I'd put him on I'm sitting at something like a 60% favorite in the hand. So by that assumption let's figure out the money

60% of the time you take him out and are sitting with 212K in chips. Now you have roughly 35% of the chips in play. So we'll say a 35% chance at first (though should be closer to 40% since he thinks he is best) 60% at second and 5% at 3rd.

40% he calls and loses he's not out, but crippled with 52K in chips or 9% so we'll say he has a 10% chance at 1st (for simplicity) 15% chance at 2nd 55% chance at 3rd and 20% chance of 4th.
So the EV of a call is .6*((.35*154000)+(.6*94000)+(.05* 59000))+ .4*(.1*154000+.15*94000+.55*59000+.2*42000) which equals roughly $105,120

Now let's say he folds and has 112 left in chips or roughly 18%. So we'll say he has 20% chance of finishing 1st 35% chance of finishing 2nd 25% of finishing 3rd and 10% finishing 4th. So without writing it all out that comes to $86,650.

Seems like a clear call to me. Then again my 60% number might be high in terms of the favorite so just for my own amusement I figured out where the break even point would be between call and fold and shockingly it is somewhere around being a 40%/60% dog!!

I'm sure a few of my percentages can be disputed, but you'd have to REALLY tweak them to make this anywhere close to a fold IMO...

[SossMan]

....and jeopardize what surely looks like a minimum 2nd place finish for me...

and

If he calls and wins, great. He now has T212k, which is still less than 55% of the big stack. In other words, winning this pot does not put him in serious contention for winning the tournament.

don't correlate. If you don't want to gamble and risk not getting 2nd place, then you should be more inclined to call here.

This call is easy. I can't believe the this thread is so long.

[Myrtle]

Carlo doesn't want to gamble because he feels that he DOESN'T have to.

If he felt that he was a dog at the table, then I would agree that it's an easy call......but he doesn't feel that way.

I can't (& won't) disagree with the math. There are times in a tournament (and this is one of them) where other factors take priority.

[MLG]

you factor those other priorities into the math of the decision. if he doesn't want to make this call, then he really shouldnt limp to begin with. Limping implies he will take a bigger preflop risk in order to get his money in with the best of it. If he doesnt want to take that risk, then don't lay the trap, just raise.