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  #1  
Old 09-02-2005, 10:07 AM
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Default Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

This comes up often enough to be a leak. I have no idea how to play this. The villian is your typical 40/5/1 3/6 6-max calling station.

The problem is overcards turning in general, but the Ace in particular. At the turn, if I bet and I'm ahead, he'll usually fold. If I'm behind, he simply calls. If I check, he'll bet if he's ahead and check if he's behind, which really sucks.

If he simply calls, then I'm stuck in a tough river situation. Check/calling seems weak. Check/folding seems completely lame. Betting seems foolish as the odds of me being beat seem better than 50%.

How do people play this?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB folds.

River: (5.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB
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  #2  
Old 09-02-2005, 10:40 AM
witeknite witeknite is offline
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Location: Finally at Party
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Default Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

I don't know if I can bet this board on the river. Does he have K-high, a PP 66 or lower, or a worse 7 more than 50% of the time he calls? Looking at the flop, he could have a busted flush draw that won't pay off, one of the previously mentioned hands or a whole lot of stuff that beats you. I think if you show this down (which I think you should), check/call is the only way to go. Comments anyone?

WiteKnite
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  #3  
Old 09-02-2005, 10:40 AM
mannika mannika is offline
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Default Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

As you mentioned, you can't check/fold, so your decision is to bet/fold or check/call on the river (I think up to the river is pretty standard).

Given the board, I can't see you winning at showdown unless villian was on the flush draw, or if he had a 7 worse kicker (possible). Also, any hand that villian has that is better than yours will almost always call a river bet.

Therefore, your decision here lies with how often you think villian has seven lower kicker. If you think it is very unlikely that he does, betting here will only cause better hands to call, and worse hands to fold. On the flipside, check/calling here may induce bluffs with busted diamond draws, but someone who hit the jack may check through, saving you a bet.

Ultimately, I would probably check/call, but if you think villian is likely to have the T7-74 and that he will not check through better hands, then it may be worth a bet/fold.
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  #4  
Old 09-02-2005, 10:42 AM
jph0424 jph0424 is offline
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Default Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

I bet in this situation. Yes it is very possible that he is ahead of you but it is just as likely you are ahead of him. He could easily have any PP lower than 7 or a weaker 7. And since you would be paying off a better hand anyway if you check then this is definitely a bet.

If you check and he bets you lose 1 BB about 80% of the time.

If you bet and he calls you win 1 BB about 40% of the time, lose 1 BB about 40% of the time, and he folds about 20% of the time.

If you check then he checks you win probably 70% of the time.

So I think it is a bet.
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  #5  
Old 09-02-2005, 10:45 AM
Isura Isura is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 69
Default Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

[ QUOTE ]
At the turn, if I bet and I'm ahead, he'll usually fold. If I'm behind, he simply calls. If I check, he'll bet if he's ahead and check if he's behind, which really sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he acts this way on the river too, I think it's a check/fold. But I like check/call better than betting out the river. The turn you have to bet though imo.
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  #6  
Old 09-02-2005, 11:21 AM
mannika mannika is offline
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Location: KTown Ghetto
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Default Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

[ QUOTE ]
If you check and he bets you lose 1 BB about 80% of the time.

If you bet and he calls you win 1 BB about 40% of the time, lose 1 BB about 40% of the time, and he folds about 20% of the time.

If you check then he checks you win probably 70% of the time.

So I think it is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can draw this conclusion from those percentages. First off, the %'s given are complete estimations (if you have hand ranges to back these %'s up, please provide them). Second off, unless you have the conditional probability of him betting if you check, the above numbers can't even be used in a math equation to justify your conclusion.
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  #7  
Old 09-02-2005, 01:18 PM
jph0424 jph0424 is offline
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Default Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

The OP said "villian is your typical 40/5/1 3/6 6-max calling station." And to call the flop and turn on this board I put him on one of the following hands. 22, 44, 55, 66, 76, 75, 87, 97, T7, J7, Q7, K7, low possibility of an Ax because even an aggro factor of one will raise with TP on this board most of the time, and the obvious other hand he could be playing are diamonds which an LP would check behind anyway. I just don't think we are up against an A, J, or stronger 7 as much as we are a low pp or a weaker 7 and that is why i think i bet this.

p.s.- The percentages were approximations and I shouldn't do that without backing it up.
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