Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible

[axioma]

so he was raising every street each hand... except the one time you happen to be in. sure.

youve posted a very basic hand, with a clear correct solution, and now you are getting all defensive when you dont like what you hear. if you were a bit more reasonable people might be more inclined to explain it to you.

the call was terrible, end of discussion.

[Hamlet]

I agree with W. Deranged here. I think you're over-estimating your implied odds. By my calculations, there is about a 16% chance by the river that the overpair will have made its set (4 cards to hit 45/47*44/46*43/45*42/44). You will lose alot on those hands. Sometimes the board will come 4 hearts when you don't fill. Once in a while the maniac will beat your set. Even on the board you flopped, the Aces still have 4 outs (a ten screws you)

I'd be interested in seeing a showdonw win% assuming you flop a six and are against AA and a random hand. If I get a chance I'll run it on TTH.

[Weebl]

FWIW,
What if any point is the cut off for pairs that are acceptable cold calls in this situation.

I figure rebump with everything TT and up.

So is 99, 88 acceptable and nothing else? Or should we rebump 99, 88 as well and muck everything else.

Cold calling does suck though, I tend to think raise or fold.

Anyone?

[blackize]

I am getting defensive because nobody has provided me with an adequate explanation as to why this call is bad. The maniac had been going nuts in every pot up to this point. In this situation, it worked out in my favor. I could post hand after hand of this maniac going nuts to SHOW you all that the implied odds were there.

Just look at the maniac's play on the river, he has either a 4 or 5 high flush and he went nuts. He was doing this on every street for most hands.

Yes it is odd that the maniac did not go crazy earlier in this hand, but it does not change the fact that I can assume that I will be getting the right implied odds based on the fact that for the last 50 or so hands he HAS gone nuts.

[adamstewart]

<font color="red">[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a rock and raising with AK or better, my pokertracker stats on him have a VPIP of 10% over 50 hands so it is more likely that he is raising a big pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]</font>


I tried to make that part stand out, because you must have missed it while you were playing this hand!!



[ QUOTE ]
The SB is a complete maniac and caps or bets every street post flop. I cold called the raise here with position and what I thought were enormous implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Be honest with yourself.... you're trying to justify a horrible call (both then and now). This read on SB does not negate your read on UTG - not even close.




Adam

[blackize]

If he has AK I am a favorite. If he has a big pair I am a 4-1 dog. I don't particularly care either way since I am playing for a set on the flop knowing that the big pair will pay me off and the maniac will go nuts.

Yes there will be times when my hand gets counterfeited or beat, but those are rare after I flop my set and the 20+BB pots I take down make up for the questionable call preflop.

[meep_42]

Also, when determining the implied odds of small PP (those that are quite unlikely to win without improvement), you should use something better than 7.5:1, as you're not continuing on many flops that don't give you a set AND you have to take into account the times your set loses (and you likely lose many bets postflop). I've seen 10:1 cited as a good rule of thumb, but am willing to bump it down to 9:1 a lot of the time, because I like to play poker.

-d

[jskills]

Fold preflop - given he's a rock and no other callers.

But sweet hand after that ...

[blackize]

In this case I am not continuing on ANY flop that doesnt yield a set based on my read of UTG.

Given that 10-1 number, if I can expect to see a 20+BB pot every hand, is putting in 1BB preflop so bad? If so please explain why.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK I am a favorite. If he has a big pair I am a 4-1 dog. I don't particularly care either way since I am playing for a set on the flop knowing that the big pair will pay me off and the maniac will go nuts.

Yes there will be times when my hand gets counterfeited or beat, but those are rare after I flop my set and the 20+BB pots I take down make up for the questionable call preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]



What do you want me to say?

Okay, fine. You're right. Keep cold-calling super-tight-TAG-UTG-raisers with 66 in these situations. I'm sure it'll work out well for you.


Adam