Review: Hand 1, Q8o

[shadow29]

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Say you've got AK and BB bets out on 852r board. You're raising right? I am (especially since it'll get the pot heads up).

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I think that for non-2+2ers (and even then it is very situational) raising AK unimproved on the flop is a rarity at passive micro games.

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meh. Shaddap and bow to my "reputation"

[istewart]

Lmao.

[Aaron W.]

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No, our position doesn't give us many good options. In the first example, I have no idea why you think BB is going to bet for us or where AK comes from.

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We're the BB and we have Q8. I gave PFR AK and figured the action might go like this:

SB checks, BB bets, MP2 raises, field folds, BB calls.

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Oh. I get it now. As for raising AK in that spot, that's another thread.

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In the second case, you're talking about a miracle flop.

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Yes, I know. That's why I was using it. I gave us a mediocre flop and a great flop. I assumed that everyone knows what to do with a terrible flop (c/f).

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You gave the more rare of the 'mediocre' flops. Say the flop comes Q73 or QJ4. You've got TPNK with a broadway card on board and you're OOP against a preflop raiser and two coldcallers. This is a bad situation. I think you're overestimating the range of coldcalling hands by a significant margin. Even if one is a total donk, I don't think both are -- at least one of them has a moderate-weak holding, and probably neither has total junk. It's just that moderate-weak holdings often contain queens with better kickers.

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A "couple backdoor draws" must come down perfect for you because only one of your backdoor flushes is worth drawing to and you'll often be drawing to the inside of a backdoor straight, making it less valuable.

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Correct. What I was saying is that if we get some flop cards that help us, but not by much, and we get this:

SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB?

We're getting 13:1 (now that I do the math, it's probably a little less than we want but I think that we can make up 3 or 4 SBs by the river). We can call (or fold).

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Oh good... I was thinking that you were going to suggest a raise. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, though, it's more likely 12:1 as someone folds something somewhere on the flop. That's not enough to be drawing to just a couple weak backdoor draws. Also, the backdoor straight draw (or even the gutshot straight) will often give a redraw to a better straight (always? I haven't checked all cases, so I don't know).

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As for the hand reading... I'll give you that it helps, but I don't know if it helps enough to overcome the negatives (relative position is a huge part of this since Q8o doesn't flop good drawing hands).

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Hopefully I took care of the position part above, lemme know if I'm not making sense. You're right, that Q8o doesn't flop many good drawing hands. But I think that with the "discount" and several CCers, it doesn't have to flop drawing hands (or mediocre-miracle hands like above) that often. I am not good enough at math to work it out, but intuitively I think that we're priced in.

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I don't think I buy the position part. ONce again, the thing you will want to do most often with a hand like Q8o is to protect your hand by facing the field with two bets... and that's when you've got a decent shot at having the best hand on the flop. With Q8o, even an aggressive preflop raiser will still have AQs-QTs or KQ-QJ to have you dominated fairly often. And when he doesn't have those hands, he often doesn't cooperate with your hand protection scheme.

I'd take suited junk over Q8o all day long.

[shadow29]

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Oh. I get it now. As for raising AK in that spot, that's another thread.

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Seen that thread. But I am raising AK there since I'll get it HU, bet the turn, and check behind on the river UI. But that is another thread.

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You gave the more rare of the 'mediocre' flops. Say the flop comes Q73 or QJ4. You've got TPNK with a broadway card on board and you're OOP against a preflop raiser and two coldcallers. This is a bad situation. I think you're overestimating the range of coldcalling hands by a significant margin. Even if one is a total donk, I don't think both are -- at least one of them has a moderate-weak holding, and probably neither has total junk. It's just that moderate-weak holdings often contain queens with better kickers.

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Perhaps. And I see your point. I'm too lazy to do the EV cacls, but basically sometimes we'll c/f on a mediocre flop involving a queen. Sometimes we'll win that pot too. And other times we'll pay 1 SB and figure out that we're no good. I think that Q8o is good enough here.

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Oh good... I was thinking that you were going to suggest a raise. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Don't quit your day job. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Seriously, though, it's more likely 12:1 as someone folds something somewhere on the flop. That's not enough to be drawing to just a couple weak backdoor draws. Also, the backdoor straight draw (or even the gutshot straight) will often give a redraw to a better straight (always? I haven't checked all cases, so I don't know).

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Ya. I haven't (nor will I) done the math, but basically it's close. I'm confident enough in my skill and hand reading abilities to defend here. I think that Q8o is easy enough hand to pay one more SB to see a flop.

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I don't think I buy the position part. ONce again, the thing you will want to do most often with a hand like Q8o is to protect your hand by facing the field with two bets... and that's when you've got a decent shot at having the best hand on the flop. With Q8o, even an aggressive preflop raiser will still have AQs-QTs or KQ-QJ to have you dominated fairly often. And when he doesn't have those hands, he often doesn't cooperate with your hand protection scheme.

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meh. Whatever. I'm going to go watch TV now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I'd take suited junk over Q8o all day long.

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I'll cede that. But Q8o is what we got. And it's not that bad of a hand. Especially if you can get away from it very easily.

[Entity]

I think Q8o is a really easy fold here.

[spamuell]

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I disagree. This hand is very easy to play. (And very easy to find out when you are behind).

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It really annoys me when people don't read the whole thread when I'm making an argument, but for once I'm going to do it because this is clearly untrue and therefore Q8o is a fold because your reverse implied odds are awful.

[albedoa]

I think what shadow29 is trying to say here is that he's confident enough in his postflop game (and ability to fold) to give this 1:9 call a shot. When he hits that "miracle flop," he will make back way more than he loses to the players who don't know how to handle themselves postflop.

I make plays like this all the time and make a killing when I hit. Have I been fooling myself?

[Bco1/75]

I agree. Suited but no off suited. I do think there are some hands in here with multiway action where any two cards will do.