Poll: How reliable is this online tell

[Carlos]

In another thread I was critized for changing my play due to an online tell. It made me realize that I really had no idea how to quantify the reliablity of online tells. So I'm interested in your opinion on the following situation.

A weak-tight player has been at the table for an hour and has always reacted in a timely fashion unless he clearly had something to think about. In this hand he is in the BB facing 4 limpers and takes a very long pause before he checks.

Assume that for this particular player the boarderline raising hands from the BB are AQo-AJo, KQo, KJs, QJs and TT-99 corresponding to 4.2 percent of all hands.

How likely do you think it is that BB has a borderline raising hand?