folding in +EV situations during SNGs...

[wiggs73]

In this thread, Megabet, myself, and a few others have been debating whether to take slight edges early in tournaments when you have the pot odds to, but losing means busting out of the tournament. I think it's an interesting debate and I wanted to make a new thread since the title of the original had to do with an AK $55 hand and maybe not everyone had read the actual debate within. I'd like to get as many opinions on this as possible.

[MegaBet]

wiggs, I understand where you are coming from and it is the Harrington approach. However, Harrington is referring mainly to MTTs and is generally more of a tight player.

In SNGs, I believe if you have the odds to make a call then you should do so, even early in the game. If you play a lot at the higher levels (as I do), good players will catch on pretty quickly that you don't want early confrontations and this will be very very -EV to you in the long run. That's just my approach.

I don't think calling this thread "+EV v +money" is accurate either, because of course you want to maximise your return.

[bigt439]

Your big edges come later on in the tournament when you push much better than any of your opponents. While you should be looking to get yourself into +EV situations early on, neutral EV or very marginally +EV situations should be avoided because you have such a larger edge later on in the tournament. For largely this reason and a couple more relating to the dynamics of an sng that I don't think I'm totally qualified to discuss, the increase in $EV of doubling up is not proportionate to the $EV of busting out of a tourney.

[ace_in_the_hole]

I personally think that many people overplay AK early in SnG's. In the hand in question from megabet's post, I feel like folding is defiantley the best option.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally think that many people overplay AK early in SnG's. In the hand in question from megabet's post, I feel like folding is defiantley the best option.

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More people overplay AQ and even AJ and KQ - especially if they are suited.

[downtown]

This has at least been covered in some detail before.

In this post, in reply to this statement:
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"Survival is in my opinion(I will never say this enough) the absolute first concern in your game."

[/ QUOTE ]
Bozeman wrote:

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This is incorrect: your first concern is money (per hour or per tourney). While money does not correlate perfectly with CEV (chip EV), it correlates much stronger with CEV than it does with survival. Exceptions will occur, but only some of the time, and only around the bubble. Admittedly, a SnG starts closer to the bubble than a multi, but it is still far enough that doubling up is worth at least 1.9x $EV."

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree, and I think it applies here as well.

There's also a lengthy discussion about this topic here:
Positive EV vs. survival in Tourneys

Not trying to dissuade others from sharing at all, but just thought I'd point out some places I'd read about this before and had bookmarked in my favorite posts.

I tend to be of the school that if I have enough overlay in $EV I'll take the edge early. What is that overlay though? I'm not sure, and it varies according to different players on this site on what it "should" be. Do I personally calculate it on the fly? No.

Generally speaking:
If I feel my edge is small but I have FE, I push the edge even with a small advantage and moderate overlay.
If I feel my edge is large, I obviously call for my tourney life.
If I feel my edge is small and I have to call for my tourney life, I only call if the overlay is large enough. Your independent style and risk tolerance is largely going to affect what that overlay # is for you.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
Your big edges come later on in the tournament if you push much better than any of your opponents.

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FYP.

At the lower levels, you can probably take it as a given that this is the case. Given that, it does not make sense to subject yourself to early close calls when you can generate a large advantage over the field just by playing a good mathematical late game.

At higher levels, you have no such expectation that a good late push/fold game gives you a large advantage over the field. Since you can't depend on this, you are more correct (and it is more necessary) to exploit much smaller early edges.

It's only correct to pass up a small advantage now for a big advantage later when you indeed expect to have a big advantage later.

[Mr_J]

"the increase in $EV of doubling up is not proportionate to the $EV of busting out of a tourney."

This isn't necessarily so since ICM only looks at stack size, and not the skill/strengths/weaknesses of the person behind that stack.

Edited to add that ICM also doesn't include the fact that busting out early gives you great turnover of sngs/hr.

There never is a right answer for these situations. Sure you can argue +EV and pot odds until you are blue in the face, but if you make the call and lose, try to use pot odds to pay for your next sng.

I think it is so early in the sng that i will find a better time to take someone on. it could very well be you were lucky enough to get a chance to bust the first donk on the table...something i am always jealous of. I am the type that would fold here and wait it out...i would rather stick around and outplay these guys than give in to a coin flip this early on.

On a side note, why dont you just decide how you want to play this hand, early in sngs, in a heads up hand. I say this because to me, you should play this hand consistently (barring excellent reads of course) because, correct me if I'm wrong, but in order for the long term EV numbers to be valid, you have to call in this position EVERY TIME. you cant pick and choose your fights, you have to be consistent and that is what i think people overlook...

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
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Your big edges come later on in the tournament if you push much better than any of your opponents.

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FYP.

At the lower levels, you can probably take it as a given that this is the case. Given that, it does not make sense to subject yourself to early close calls when you can generate a large advantage over the field just by playing a good mathematical late game.

At higher levels, you have no such expectation that a good late push/fold game gives you a large advantage over the field. Since you can't depend on this, you are more correct (and it is more necessary) to exploit much smaller early edges.

It's only correct to pass up a small advantage now for a big advantage later when you indeed expect to have a big advantage later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aha!! Great post! I play at the higher levels where most people know how to push/fold. Therefore I take my +EV call because a large stack early, if played right, will likely get you in the money. My posts here assume the higher levels. If playing at the lower levels where a good player has a much higher advantage over the field, I can see why folding would work.