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  #11  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:01 PM
Buckmulligan Buckmulligan is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
the flush card hits it's time to represent it,

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny [censored].
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  #12  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:01 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
... I don't think either of these things are going to be true > 60% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
what needs to happen more than 60% for betting the flop to be correct?
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  #13  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:07 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... I don't think either of these things are going to be true > 60% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
what needs to happen more than 60% for betting the flop to be correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was responding to the guy that said you want to bet the flop so that people will think you don't have overcards. My feeling is that the majority of the time at these limits that's a crap reason for betting because in order for the bet to be correct FOR THAT REASON you are presuming what I said you'd have to presume.
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  #14  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:10 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
The flop is a must bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm reluctant to call anything short of a made hand a "must" bet against jackasses like these:

[ QUOTE ]
BB plays any two hands VPIP has to be like 80 percent....CO is more or less
typical VPIP of 35 or so....neither seem to be particularly aggressive post flop

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #15  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:11 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... I don't think either of these things are going to be true > 60% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
what needs to happen more than 60% for betting the flop to be correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was responding to the guy that said you want to bet the flop so that people will think you don't have overcards. My feeling is that the majority of the time at these limits that's a crap reason for betting because in order for the bet to be correct FOR THAT REASON you are presuming what I said you'd have to presume.

[/ QUOTE ]
i get that you're saying they're going to find reasons to "continue in the hand," but i'm wondering where you got the 60% number.
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  #16  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:25 PM
nomadtla nomadtla is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
And, to the poster that said you should bet because you don't want them thinking you have overcards, a) that presumes that they're thinking about what you have, and b) that they aren't going to assume that you have overcards, regardless, because that way they can continue with the hand. I don't think either of these things are going to be true > 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not disagreeing with you that it's really not a great reason to bet this flop. I still think this particular flop is a bet. But could you please give a better explanation of your statement above. As I said I'm not disagreeing I'm just having trouble grasping what you're trying to say there and I want to understand your reasoning against my "meta-game" continuation bet.

Perhaps my position could be beter explained by saying I want them to put me on overcards this situation and on subsequent situations where I have an overpair to a similar board.

I'm not advocating that people at this limit think about peoples hands much. I don't make this play so much for the players that don't pay attention to my hands, since I will get money from them in the long run regardless. I make it for the few players who do pay attention so I can get more of their money when they're in a pot with me.

I think checking everytime you miss overcards after raising Preflop just turns your hand face up. I also think betting into a lot of micro players everytime you miss is a leak. But I think against 2 I bet this flop. But usually give up on the turn UI.
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  #17  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:04 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
i'm wondering where you got the 60% number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh...I made it up [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
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  #18  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:17 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
I want to understand your reasoning against my "meta-game" continuation bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DavidC paragraph]

I am coming more and more to the conclusion that at nano- and micro-limits any justification for an action that includes the words "meta game" is completely specious. First, the vast majority of the players you're up against aren't paying any attention to what you're doing or devoting any attention to what you might be holding. Second, if you happen to sit down with one that is trying to pay attention his sample size is going to be so small that he's not going to have anything beyond a default read on what your actions mean. Third, if you have a player at your table advanced enough to be able to pay attention, it's pretty likely that he's multi-tabling and so playing ABC and relying on PA-HUD stats for his reads. And finally, as I said, it's irrelevant most of the time anyway, because even if he says to himself, "Self, these are the actions of a player holding an overpair!" he's going to follow that right up with, "But, he might also be playing overcards strongly, so I'm going to call down with my pair of threes," because THAT'S what he really wants to do, and so he's going to find a reason that will allow him to do it, if he's got a hand that he played against your preflop raise.

[/DavidC paragraph]
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  #19  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:24 PM
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

grunching -

i think the pre-flop play is fine. I think i'd do a continuation bet on the flop, then shut down if raised (call / fold unimproved).

I'm not sure you can count six outs here - two complete a flush (potentially).
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  #20  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:36 PM
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Default Re: Weak Overcard Play

[ QUOTE ]
AQo is very tough UTG, maybe just call and hope for a short handed flop, raising can get you into trouble, if there are 2 callers even, your equity drops, and you'r out of position.

Flop: This flop isn't too bad for AQo, your overcard outs are probably still good. I would bet and raise semibluff, protect those overcard outs aggressively.

Turn: Bet out again, keep in mind you're drawing dead to a set, but you may get a hand like 55 to fold here.

River: when the flush card hits it's time to represent it, you may get someone who has a 9 or 7 to fold. Do not show the hand down, either re-raise or fold if it is raised back to you. If it is capped fold. If you get called you're toast, but that's the danger in AQo UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you think AQo is such a good multiway hand to let people in cheaply who can beat you? raise preflop. AQo is best against few players.

semibluff? do you think a guy with 80% vpip has much chance of folding? the aim of a semibluff is to get people to fold, and have outs if they don't fold.

your strategy is much better suited to NL than limit I think, especially the representing the flush bit. people will not fold for one bet when you represent in my experience at this level.
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