How often do we see aces?

[microbet]

I agree with this being a good fold, probably, in the $109s, I would not fold this in the $11s.

I just mention that because last I heard OP was in the $11s.

[valenzuela]

Yupi!!! Finally we can all agree its a fold.

1) According to our pal ICM, winning the five way all-in leaves with 36,1% of the prize pool, folding leaves us with 11,4% of the prize pool.
2)If we dont see AA or some suited connector like 87 we will win 45% of the time more or less.
3)If we do see AA, which is kinda likely, we will win 18% of the time IF nobody else has a king, IF nobody else has a king, IF nobody else has a king.
I wouldnt be surprised if I see KQ or AK.
4) You win 10 dollars for folding.
5) Youre expected value for calling is less than + 10 dollars.
6) folding is correct.

[ebaudry]

Harrington says that AA will be out there 1 hand each 24 when you hold KK.

IMO, the action here is more odd than indicative of Aces. I'd be expecting a middle pair, probably an AK, maybe a big pair QQ+.

I don't feel like doing the algebra, but I would wonder how well KK does against 3 other legit hands. Like if they held QQ, AK, JJ (which is probably about best case). Given the 3 opponents you'll have to beat, I wonder how well KK holds up. Just on the fly, I would think QQ will beat you ~15%, same for JJ. The ace will catch I think ~30%, and the King is blocking you.

I play the $33s so I couldn't fold this personally. But I agree whole-heartedly with all the logic pointing to folding here since it's more +EV. I see small pockets too often here to consider folding for my taste (at $33).

GL.