bottom two disaster?

Macquarie · #1 10-06-2005, 06:15 AM

Well, on a happy note, I finally know what people mean when they say they're on a heater... Last few thousand hands have been amazing. Every other PP hits a set, and draws all come home.

On a less happy note, this hand...

Villain unremarkable 20/5 after 100 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) converter

CO ($46)
Button ($97)
SB ($94)
Hero ($113.50)
UTG ($174.30)
UTG+1 ($111.95)
UTG+2 ($56.30)
MP1 ($171.50)
MP2 ($109.85)
MP3 ($172)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 3 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($5) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, MP3 raises to $12, CO folds, SB folds, Hero calls $8, UTG+1 calls $8.

Turn: ($41) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets $25, Hero calls $25, UTG+1 folds.

River: ($91) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $77, Hero?

Final Pot: $168

I put him on likely an overpair on the flop, so didn't raise him there. I suspect lots of people will tell me to raise the flop.

In retrospect my turn check is a disaster. I think I should have lead the turn and fold to a raise.

Any thoughts? Anyone call the river?

HarryW · #2 10-06-2005, 07:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I should have lead the turn and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks best to me. With those numbers he likely isn't raising 78 or hearts, especially with the other guy in there giving him odds. Best case on the turn he has A6s or medium pair. Problem is I am not sure either will fire 2/3 pot bet into 2 players who are both interested. Smells like 66 or Ah5h; better duck it on the river.

Macquarie · #3 10-06-2005, 06:11 PM

Any more ideas? Can I lose less than 40 bucks here?

Riposte · #4 10-06-2005, 06:16 PM

I like the flop bet and call. This way we can really see if we are in trouble on the turn (facing a set) by betting the turn hard for $40. If he raises, you can fold. If he calls he's on a draw. If he folds, you win.

amoeba · #5 10-06-2005, 06:19 PM

I just fold to the flop raise.

I just don't see overpair often enough to make this call on the flop profitable.

Riposte · #6 10-06-2005, 06:28 PM

I like this too... it's probably better than my line above.

mudbuddha · #7 10-06-2005, 06:35 PM

what could he have that hes raising you with tho???

" theres no way that flop hit this guy.. ill raise him with junk" unless he flopped a set...

orange · #8 10-06-2005, 06:38 PM

Fold the flop.

Riposte · #9 10-06-2005, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what could he have that hes raising you with tho???

" theres no way that flop hit this guy.. ill raise him with junk" unless he flopped a set...

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be a dangerous thought process.

amoeba · #10 10-06-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what could he have that hes raising you with tho???

" theres no way that flop hit this guy.. ill raise him with junk" unless he flopped a set...

[/ QUOTE ]

usually people don't bluff in to a near pot bet and a call.

I think you see 56 here pretty often.

other possible candidates if he is decent is 78h, 57h, A5h.

point is there aren't too many hands you are really ahead of here.