40-80 Hand

[Clarkmeister]

I suspect the majority of our opinion difference stems from the probability each of us places on getting both players to fold on the turn to the 3-bet. If I thought that I would definitely collect 2BBs from either player but would lose the other, I would then likely 3-bet. But since I believed that my 3-bet would have dropped both of them, I think that tips the scales back in favor of the smoothcall.

[Coilean]

I definitely agree that 3-betting the turn here is the best play the vast majority of the time. But this situation is fairly unusual since Clark is pretty sure the raiser will fold a big overpair if he reraises the turn. Since you no longer have the usual guarantee of getting 2 more bets from the initial raiser, it becomes *much* more likely that you get no more bets from *either* spot when you face the other guy with 2 bets cold on the turn. It seems to me that you are disagreeing more with Clark's assertion that the button will fold a big overpair to the reraise (hence your assumption that a reraise should net Clark at least 2 more bets most of the time) than that the reraise is better than a smoothcall given that assertion.

As for being against 2 outs instead of 4, the only reason that is a factor here EV-wise is that by smoothcalling Clark is only charging them 1 more bet (as opposed to charging either 3 more bets for 4 outs, or 1 more bet for 2 outs) collectively to draw at the extra 2 outs -- but that is an illusory discount since Clark will be charging them both again when they miss on the river, bets he would not otherwise be getting if they both fold on the turn. Otherwise, as long as it's profitable for 1 guy to draw at 2 outs against you here, it's twice as profitable (in terms of profit on the current betting round) to let 2 guys draw at 2-outers: it costs Clark 2/42 of the pot in equity for each guy drawing at 2 outs (so about 0.7BB apiece with 14.25BB in the pot), and they will usually pay much more than that factoring in the river action, giving you the difference in profit (minus the tiny fraction of your future bets they get from occassionally spiking).

[PuffsNutz]

Have you actually ever seen this guy fold AA in a spot
like this? Would you consider 3 betting turn with
ATh? Would guy with AA consider you might do the same?

From his point of view:
I just think you'd be way to predictable folding AA
in this exact situation to one more bet on turn.
At these aggressive limits you'd have to really know
your opp to make this laydown (despite having
the protection of the live one in).