Baseball--9/28

[EZB]

I am looking for any advice anyone wants to offer on betting baseball tonight. So far i like Cleveland to win by 1.5 @ -130. Also the sox to win by 1.5 @-115 b/c i figure if they do win, although toronto has giventhem trouble all year, tey will win by more than 1. I also like the over of 7 in the nationals game. Can anyone leave advice on a good 2 or 3 unit bet for tonight at well. The above bets i value at 1 unit bets.

Thanks, acnt wait to read what you write.

EZB

[Bill C]

Take a look at the UNDER in the Tx-Seattle game.

bc

[mrbaseball]

I take great risk in getting flamed here but I can't resist!

If you have read much of my past posts you will know I just loathe laying runs and find it to be a pure sucker bet in most instances. Laying runs and still laying juice? Yeeeech!!!!!

These are bad bets. I haven't even capped these games yet but these kinds of lines are bad. About 28% of games are 1 run games. No team in baseball is below .500 when getting runs! Even lowly KC is 84-73 when adjusting their record to the runline. This means saying any team will lose by 2 or more, more than 50% of the time like these lines say it means you need MAJOR mismatches just to probably break even.

Lilly starts have resulted in a 14-6 record when given the runs. Arroyo starts have resulted in 12-19 record when giving runs and you wanna lay juice saying Arroya beats Lilly by more than 2? No thanks!

Even lowly McClung is .500 when getting the runs and Lee is an impressive 20-11 when giving runs but I still don't like it.

Giving runs and laying juice for the priviledge is just bad and you are giving up way too much. Baseball doesn't offer the kind of dominance required for these kinds of bets to ever be any good.

[JupiterUWG]

i play baseball sparingly but wanted to post my pick of the dodgers at -112...be back later to give reasoning

[ThomasJoe]

I agree wholeheartily with the concept of never laying runs in baseball. I am glad I read this post. I think the taking the runs in these games here has some real value. WS are struggling and are overvalued because public likes to play teams that must win. Getting an away team at plus 1.5 runs plus (TB) is also good value. Cleveland is hot but the opponents will be as fired up as possible to be a spoiler. btw I used to win a lot of money when local bookies put a run line out which they do not do and I always took the runs.

[heropretend]

Giants feel right to me.
Schmidt back, padres don't strike me as a closer.

Houston are big dogs. If houston wins, they're getting to Carpenter, so I took them for the first 5innings, +.5runs at +105. unpredictable probably. not on it big at all.

bosox and yanks will probably win, but there's no value there. bet on a parlay if you're doing it.

mets look like they have some value. traschel's solid and phillies are another team who seems to blow it under pressure.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
bosox and yanks will probably win, but there's no value there. bet on a parlay if you're doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If there is no value then why would you bet a parlay? You do realize that a parlay is theoretically taking the money you bet on game 1 and the money won on game 1 and betting it on game 2?

craig

[heropretend]

i feel like its a scoreboard game. bosox score, every yanks player looks up and becomes a tough out.

you're right anyway. i decided to go with the over in the minn/kc game.

[whipsaw]

Best bets on the board (other than fading the Yanks and Bosox who are ridiculously overpriced today as always) I think are Houston at +170 (pinny) and the under 8 for that game.

St. Louis has not been playing well lately, probably because they clinched so early. LaRussa might even begin sitting people to rest them for the playoffs. Backe has been good, and Houston has won 8 of his last 10 starts. Carpenter is of course awesome, but has definitely not been the same over his last 3 starts compared to the rest of the year. +170 looks like a good price for HOU that has something to play for.

On the O/U looks good too, considering the O/U track record of these teams. I like the ML more than the O/U, but I like both.

[20Five]

Alright...

heres one:

Orioles Get +1.5 runs, and still are +123 against Chacon in Baltimore? I'll bite.