your move?

[citanul]

whoa, first off:

i odn't know how my post wound up as your post, but editted, that was clearly not my intention.

sorry about that.

for a recap, alias said that he thought hero should have good folding equity for a preflop push.

back to my next post.

egad.

citanul

[citanul]

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that's odd, with no real read, i'd assume you have no folding equity at all with a preflop push.

citanul

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Really? Villain started with 1,900. After his initial bet of 350, he has 1,550 left. Not great, but about 10xBB and more than shorty and more than you will have if you push and he folds. If you push, he calls, and he loses, he will be down to 1,100 and the second lowest stack. His raise is interesting because it is slightly more than 3xBB, enough to put SB all-in. It looks like he wants to go heads up with SB, but not do the big dance with a larger stack.

A read here would be very helpful, but minus a read, raising range of button is wide enough to often give you a coin flip or dominating A and I do think you have some FE here.

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there's more to the hand than your stack, and there's more to the hand than the villains stack. in fact there's more to it than both of them together.

sure, the facts are:

he starts with 1900. if he folds to your preflop push, he has 1550.
if he calls and loses he has 1100. however, if he calls and wins, he has 2700 or something. further, he has to call 450 to win 1300 or so, right? so more than looking at his stack, it's a rare opponent who will fold when calling and losing doesn't cripple him, getting 3-1.

citanul

[AliasMrJones]

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that's odd, with no real read, i'd assume you have no folding equity at all with a preflop push.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Villain started with 1,900. After his initial bet of 350, he has 1,550 left. Not great, but about 10xBB and more than shorty and more than you will have if you push and he folds. If you push, he calls, and he loses, he will be down to 1,100 and the second lowest stack. His raise is interesting because it is slightly more than 3xBB, enough to put SB all-in. It looks like he wants to go heads up with SB, but not do the big dance with a larger stack.

A read here would be very helpful, but minus a read, raising range of button is wide enough to often give you a coin flip or dominating A and I do think you have some FE here.

[/ QUOTE ]

there's more to the hand than your stack, and there's more to the hand than the villains stack. in fact there's more to it than both of them together.

sure, the facts are:

he starts with 1900. if he folds to your preflop push, he has 1550.
if he calls and loses he has 1100. however, if he calls and wins, he has 2700 or something. further, he has to call 450 to win 1300 or so, right? so more than looking at his stack, it's a rare opponent who will fold when calling and losing doesn't cripple him, getting 3-1.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

It is true that he's getting pot odds to call with anything, but while 1,100 isn't crippled it is second shorty and not very good shape. I think we have some FE and that coupled with the reasonable chance that we are ahead based on his position and interesting bet size makes me think pushing is better than stop n go, but I think it is close.